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The youngest OLD man: Andrew Yule

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@devarshi84 wrote:

Few Indian companies boast of survival as long as Andrew yule. Founded in 1863, Andrew Yule today is completely different than the what it was even a decade ago. In 1913 Andrew Yule was the largest managing agency house in the country with 37 companies under its hold. The turnover of the Group in 1947 was Rs.23 crore and employed 86000 at the time. JP Morgan was a major shareholder of the company in 1919.

What most people see: A mini PSU struggling to stay afloat with a high P/E and a cyclical tea business.

What I see: A PSU that has seen the best possible turnaround in the last decade since it exited BIFR. Andrew Yule is also a promoter of Tidewateroil backed by LIC and United India Insurance. Standard Grease recently purchased its way into the promoters list but with PQR consultants holding other majority of shares,hostile takeover is not happening anytime soon. PQR consultants is owned by wife of Kallol Dutta who brought Andrew Yule back from the ashes. Another plus is the huge plots of lands, Historical Yule house and assets which have no value on books after decades of depreciation.

Current situation: The company recently shut down the loss making Hooghly printing. The major reason is mostly due to the rental conflicts with the landlord. Also, they were planning to set up two bought leaf factories for tea processing but I assume that the current requirement of cash by the Govt of India and their low cash has led to deferring the expansion. Currently the major business of the company are Tea, Electrical, Engineering, Webfil filaments and dividends from Tidewateroil recd as promoters.

They also hold shares in 'The Statesman, 'Khatras Jerriah mines, The New Beerbhoom Coal Co. Ltd., Yule Agro, Yule finance leasing etc and hold a few cr of shares of exide inds. They are also running a cafe in Kolkata.A few years ago when the tea gardens of various private companies were under financial stress, they had jointly requested to be brought under Andrew Yule group (when Mr. Kallol Datta was chairman).

Why I find this company exciting: It has a legacy which included periods of struggle and BIFR. Since it exited BIFR, the company is not only debt free but also profit making. Their tea is one of the best in the business and has good exports business too. Their Electrical and Engineering businesses need a little boost which can bring in good profits to the company in the long run. They recently shut down Hooghly printing which was a huge overhead. I see them doing the same with many other side businesses and concentrating on only 3-4.

Threats: Tea is the major business and cyclical in nature, Mcleod Russell had to sell of many gardens to bring down their debt. Also, the company has regularly argued how they have a problem expanding due to the bureaucracy of GOVT of India. (Govt of India recently killed ONGC’s finances for its own benefit). Majority of their businesses lie in Kolkata where strikes are as regular as Durga Puja.

Strengths: Tidewateroil has a collaboration with Nippon UX Japan, and holds the historic Veedol Brand name. Andrew Yule tea is regularly awarded at various shows and is one of the most premium tea exported to various countries. Collaboration with M/s. Togliati Transformer Co. Ltd., Russia. The management is regularly trying to outdo their PSU mentality and try something new.

Only 5-6% of shares are available to retail investors with the rest held by Govt of India and Bank of Baroda.

financials (as per screener)
Market cap 911 cr.
current price: 18.65
ROCE 13.64
ROE : 9.18
Price to book value: 4.55
peak sales in 2017 at 421 cr (consolidated)
profit in 2017 45.43 cr (42.12cr other income from TWO)
debtor days : 75
Inventory turnover : 7.36
5 year sales growth : 2.88
5 year profit growth : 5.04
average 5 year roe : 14.03

With recent market trends affecting many companies adversely, Andrew Yule is ripe for the picking for long term investment. The biggest risk remains in how they steer through loss making divisions and grow within the boundaries of GOVT of India’s stringent cash strapping rules. Shutting Down Hooghly printing and turnaround of other businesses should boost profitability to a comfortable level. Andrew Yule also recently declared that they wanted to setup boutique resorts at tea gardens.

Disc: invested tracking quantity. I don’t see this as stock being among my top 5 but holding at the CMP (only 5-6% in open market), not much can go wrong.

source: www.andrewyule.com
www.screener.in
Andrew Yule Annual report

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The Indian wood products company ltd

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@pratikjain1310 wrote:

If one travels in the parts of northern n central India one common thing comes in habit of eating is PAN MASALA.Based on this i found an intersting proxy player to pan masala manufacturing .The significant raw material used in manufacturing pan masala is Katha.This Kolkata based katha co. came into existence on bse from direct listing window hence unknown n hidden to retails.Co is The indian wood products company ltd (IWP).

Promoter Experience: The company has around 100 years of operational track record in manufacturing catechu. The company’s promoter has more than 35 years of experience in the same line of business.

COMPANY PROFILE

Incorporated in 1919, IWP was promoted by Mr. H.N. Gladstone, Mr. H. Bateson, Mr. E.H. Bbray, among others. The company is limited by shares under the Companies Act, 1913 with the sole objective to manufacture catechu. It has a manufacturing facility in Izatnagar, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh. The manufacturing activities started in 1920. In 1980, Mr. K. K. Mohta acquired the controlling interest in the company by the transfer of shares. The company is listed on BSE.

Established Customer Base: IWP generates 75% of its revenue from pan masala manufacturers. The company’s customers include renowned brands such as Rajnigandha, Pan Bahar, Pan Vilas, Vimal, Goa, Dilbagh, Jayanth, Wah, Lingraj, Aashiqi, Mohini, Zafri, Nazar, JM Super, among others. The remaining 25% is generated through the retail segment. As of June 2018, the company had 15-20 distributors, spread across Delhi, Bikaner, Churu, Varanasi, Hyderabad, West Bengal, among others.

The company has a production capacity of 4626 metric tonne per annum (MTPA) of katha and 2,000 MTPA of cutch, a
by-product of katha manufacture. The company sells its products under the brand name, IWP.

IWP’s operating margins improved in FY18 to 14.6% (FY17: 12.9%) on account of a shift in the focus towards producing timber-based catechu which is more profitable than traditional catechu.

IWP’s credit metrics remain strong on back of the growth in top line and healthy profitability. Net financial leverage (net debt/EBITDA) was 1.2x in FY18 (FY17: 2.0x) and interest coverage was 6.2x (7.5x). The net leverage improved in FY18 because of a rise in the operating EBITDA margin along with scheduled term loan repayments. However, the interest coverage declined marginally in FY18 due to an increase in short-term borrowings, availed to fund its increased working capital requirements, leading to an increase in the financial expenses.

The company has acquired an industrial plot for
Rs. 2.5-crore in Kathua, Jammu & Kashmir to establish a new katha manufacturing unit. This project would require an
additional Rs. 5-6 crore in the medium term.

This is just a intial basic analysis to keep a tracking of Co’s performance.I m not a sebi registered advisor.Hence this is not to be construed as buy/sell recommendation.
Anyone interested can analyse complete financial on bse site.
Co is thinly traded as it has tiny equity n listed only on bse

all kinds of comments r welcomed

disclosure: holding some qty

all the data has been compiled from publicly avlbl resources such as AR,co site,rating agency reports,etc

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Bombay Burmah Trading Company (Britannia Holding Company)

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@Sulla wrote:

BBTC is an asset play and has to be bought when it’s assets are priced lesser than thier value. BBTC holds about 50.65% of Britannia Industries Ltd & 15.28% of Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company. The market cap of Brittania is INR 62,198 Cr & The market cap of Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company Ltd is INR 1,487 Cr. Apart from these assets, it holds many other assets like coffee plantations, smaller companies and investments.

Normally the holding companies are traded at a 50-60% discount to the assets it hold. For arriving at a valuations for BBTC, let’s consider its 50.65% holding in Britannia Industries Ltd alone (since it is the single largest holding and other might cancel out considering those assets are sometimes making losses). The gap in market cap of Britannia Industries Ltd and BBTC has been 60% (like other holding companies). It makes sense to buy BBTC when this gap increases, since mean reversal is a norm when it comes to holding companies.

Currently there are 2 special situations,

  1. The market cap of Britannia Industries is INR 62,198 cr and the market cap of Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd is INR 5,639 cr. Value of 50.65% of Britannia Industries is INR 31503 cr. So BBTC is trading at a discount of 82% over its holding in Britannia Industries. 82% is not a sustainable gap.
  2. It’s going to get bonus debentures worth INR 365 cr from Britannia Industries ( https://www.businesstoday.in/current/corporate/nclt-approves-britannia-rs-720-crore-bonus-debenture-issue/story/371013.html ). These bonds fetch 8% interest every year and can be traded to get extra income. This bonus gives a 6.4% uplift to the value and also it is going to fetch interest every year. There is a risk of parent company not sharing the profits with holding company. These debentures mitigate the risk of getting income from parent company.

Considering these two developments and since the parent company by itself is at an attractive valuation, I think BBTC is a good buy at these levels around INR 800 per share. Please add your comments.

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Polycab India ~ Connection Zindagi Ka - W&C, FMEG and EPC Player

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@sujay85 wrote:

About Polycab India Ltd.

Established in 1964. Incorporated in January 1996. Listed in April 2019.

Domestic leader of W&C Industry:

86% of revenue [Power cables, control cables, instrumentation, building wires and industrial cables]

  • Polycab (PIL) is a leading player in India’s wires and cables (W&C) industry with ~18% / ~12% market share in the organized / total market.

  • Despite being a highly commoditised and extremely price sensitive segment PIL has able to gain market share due to a robust distribution network, wide product offerings, efficient supply chain management, strong manufacturing capabilities and brand image.

  • W&C revenue growth at a CAGR of 14% from FY15-19.

Quickly scaled FMEG Segment:

8% of revenue [Fans, LED lightings and luminaires, switches, switchgear, solar products, heaters, pumps and electrical conduits]

  • PIL forayed into multiple Fast Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) product categories from 2014 (FY15) and was therefore required to invest behind manufacturing capabilities, distribution network expansion and brand building exercises; this led to EBIT losses during FY15 and FY16.

  • However, the business attained breakeven in merely three years (FY17) and turned profitable in FY18 with an EBITM of 3% (as per company reporting), showcasing PIL’s strong focus on this space.

  • FMEG revenue increased at a CAGR of 44% over FY16-19.

  • Intends to concentrate on street lighting, agriculture pumps, air purifiers, and water purifiers.

  • It is working on strengthening its after-sales service. As of June 2018, PIL has ~ 230 customer-care franchisees.

Emergent EPC Player

6% of revenue [Projects requiring a large supply of cables, wires, and conductors]

  • PIL entered the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) business in 2009.

  • It provides electrical turnkey solutions comprising project management, onsite execution and resource management through specialized erectors and financial management.

  • Their solutions are largely provided for the transmission and distribution sectors involving projects in extra high voltage and high voltage levels for various government utilities in India.

  • These projects typically require a large supply of cables, wires and conductors, which they supply.

Competitive Strength

Market Leadership in W&C:

  • Institutional and retail customers in different industries: power, oil & gas, construction, IT parks, infrastructure, metal and cement industries.

  • Customer base is well diversified while none of the customers contributes more than 5% to its topline, which reduces dependency on any single customer.

  • Made-to-stock: based on demand forecasts from customers and/or company sales team.

  • Made-to-order: customized products for varied applications.

Synergistic expansion to FMEG

  • Common raw materials, economies of scale, higher negotiating power.

  • Cost-savings in transportation & distribution

  • Opportunity to cross-sell to a larger customer base.

  • Leverage distribution network across diverse product offerings.

Manufacturing with strong focus on backward integration:

  • PIL has built strong manufacturing capabilities in the W&C and FMEG segments with 24 facilities in operation (3 for FMEG), with stringent control over costs & quality.

  • It has incurred a capex of Rs11bn in the past 5 years, including plants for FMEG. Currently capacity utilization stands between 70-80%. In-house manufacturing will provide flexibility in improving the quality and range of FMEG. Backward integration into polymers, wire rods, cable/wire colors reduces costs and improves the quality which will continue to drive superior growth and margins.

  • Joint venture with Techno Electromech Private Limited (2017), a manufacturer based in Vadodara, Gujarat, to manufacture LED lighting and luminaires.

  • Joint venture with Trafigura Pte Ltd (2016), a commodity trading company, to set up a manufacturing facility in Waghodia (Gujarat), India, to produce copper wire rods.

Strong distributor network:

  • PIL has well entrenched distribution, 2800+ distributors and over 100,000 retailers, with long standing relationships and stickiness, some of them being with them for 3 generations.

  • It has the largest network of 29 warehouses in 20 states & UT, typically located close to distributors, dealers, and direct customers, which enables PIL to mitigate transportation costs.

Exports:

PIL has a presence in 40 countries (5% revenue is from exports); it has received a US$ 143mn order from the international market recently.

Powerful Branding:

  • Over the years, Polycab has evolved from a largely B2B play to a fast-growing B2C
    brand.

  • Advertising and sales promotion expenses increased to 1.4% of sales in FY18 from 0.4% in FY14.

  • Featured in Superbrands of India in 2016, 2017 & 2018.

  • Endorsing Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2016.

  • Brand endorsers are Paresh Rawal, Rajpal Yadav, R Madhavan, Ayushmann Khurrana.

Polycab Wires - Connection Bachat Ka. Connection Zindagi Ka.

Polycab Fans - India ka Naya All Rounder.

Polycab MCB - Bharosa Safe Zindagi ka.

Polycab LED - Afwah nahi, Roshni Phailao.

Experienced and committed management team:

  • PIL‘s success has been, and will continue to be, dependent on its management team. Its management team has collectively many years of entrepreneurial and managerial experience in the electrical products industry and also possesses an extensive network of customer relationships and a deep understanding of its operations, pricing strategies, business development and industry trends.

  • Salary: Highest salary is paid to Inder T Jaisinghani (₹36.54 mil), then Ajay T Jaisinghani & Ramesh T Jaisinghani (₹28.25 mil).

Note:

Comparison with Key competitors.

Channel financing to ease working capital cycle:

  • PIL has high working capital (27% of sales) due to penetrative strategy in FMEG and manufacturing focus.

  • Also the EPC segment serves various sectors with an average working capital of 90-100 days.

  • However, PIL has started channel financing like Havells - the impact of which is already visible in reduction in receivables.

Intends to become debt-free

  • PIL has raised Rs 13.5bn through the IPO. The object of the offer was to 1) scheduled repayment of all or a portion of certain borrowings availed by company, 2) to fund incremental
    working capital requirements of the company.

  • With the IPO funds, improvement in margins, and strong cash flow, PIL expects to become debt-free in 2-3 years.

Credit Rating

CRISIL has assigned its ‘CRISIL AA/Stable/CRISIL A1+’ ratings to the bank loan facilities of Polycab Wires Private Limited (PWPL). [13 July, 2019]

Key Financial Ratios

FY 2019 2018 2017
EPS 35.39 23.35 16.99
BVPS 201.62 166.26 141.94
ROCE 27.9 21.0 15.2
ROE 17.5 15.2 12.0
OPM 12.7 11.7 10.2
NPM 6.24 5.24 4.18
D/E 0.10 0.34 0.43
Current Ratio 1.5 1.58 1.34
Revenue Growth 17.51% 23.09% 6.04%
Net Profit Growth 40.22% 53.79% 24%
BV Growth 20.63 17.76 11.64
Receivable days 60.74 64.49 76.14
Inventory Days 76.97 75.87 75.39
Payable days 30.18 68.53 85.17
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.78 4.77 4.94

P/E: 16.81
P/B: 1.97
Price/Sales: 1.06
EV/EBIT: 9.69
Price/Cash Flow: 6.87
Face Value: 10.00
Promoter holding: 68.69% (No Pledge)
Market Cap: ~ 8500 Cr.
Altman Z-Score: 4.70
Piotroski F-Score: 8
Modified C-Score: 0

Opportunity

  • Various government initiatives to drive cable & wire demand.

  • Increase in organised pie of W&C industry to benefit market leader Polycab in long term.

  • PIL manufactures and sells a diverse portfolio of wires and cables and FMEG, which also gives the opportunity to cross-sell its products to its diverse base of customers.

  • Energy-efficient products gaining traction: Like LED & Energy Efficient Fans.

  • Improving realizations driven by value-added products especially among the younger generation, owing to increasing disposable incomes and evolving preferences.

  • Home improvement cycles in urban areas are shortening on account of rising disposable incomes and changing consumer preferences.

Risks

  • Higher exposure in W&C segment poses business concentration risk.

  • Macroeconomic slowdown can have a material impact on W&C segment.

  • Fluctuations in raw material prices pose a key challenge to the cable and wires industry. Realisation and profitability depend on copper and aluminium commodity prices.

  • Imports of raw materials like copper, aluminium, steel, and insulation materials are exposed to exchange rate fluctuation which can adversely affect the cost, and thus impact margins.

  • Concentration of suppliers of raw materials in a few sources places the business at risk from disruptions in supply.

  • Inability to scale up FMEG business division / lower than expected profitability woing to competitive pressure.

  • Significant increase in WC requirement likely to impact return ratios.

  • Being part of a labor-intensive industry, the company is subject to stringent labor laws and carries a risk of unexpected strike, work stoppage or increased wage demand.

  • Short listed history to understand management ethics towards minority shareholders.

Sources

Disclosure:

No holding, tracking.

This is not a recommendation. Please do your own research. I am a novice & is bound to make mistakes.

This is my first thread on a company. Learned a lot from ValuePickr, learned even more while doing the necessary homework for starting a thread.

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Amber Enterprises - AC Contract Manufacturer

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@gagandeep wrote:

Hi All,

Starting thread on Amber Enterprise.

Amber basically manufactures RACs and components for eight out of the top 10 RAC brands in India.

IPO came @859 in Jan 2018 at PE = ~70
Current Price: 830, Current PE = 27 , as earning grew.
Market Cap: 2,554cr, sales: 2,718

WHO WE ARE

A ONE-STOP SHOP FOR AIR CONDITIONERS AND ITS COMPONENTS FOR CONSUMERS.

Amber Enterprises India Ltd is a prominent solution provider for Air conditioner OEM/ODM Industry in India. It has a dominant presence in RACs complete unit and deals in major RAC components with 10 manufacturing facilities across India focusing in on different product segments.

With expertise in components like heat exchangers, sheet metal components, injection molding components, and system tubing and motors, Amber is strongly positioned with its backward integration to derive the core deliverable’s in terms of quality, cost & delivery.

We offer higher energy efficiency and expertise in indoor, outdoor, split and window AC units. We deal in AC components as well as non-AC components.

We have a Diversified Product portfolio which includes:

  • 1
RACs

WE DESIGN AND MANUFACTURE COMPLETE RACS INCLUDING WINDOW AIR CONDITIONERS(“WACS”) AND INDOOR UNITS (“IDUS”) AND OUTDOOR UNITS (“ODUS”) OF SPLIT AIR CONDITIONERS ("SAC"S) WITH SPECIFICATIONS RANGING FROM 0.75 TON TO 2 TONS, ACROSS ENERGY RATINGS AND TYPES OF REFRIGERANT.WE DESIGN AND MANUFACTURE INVERTER RACS TOO.

  • 2
RAC Components:

WE MANUFACTURE RELIABLE FUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS OF RACS THAT INCLUDES HEAT EXCHANGERS, MOTORS AND MULTI-FLOW CONDENSERS WITH OTHER COMPONENTS SUCH AS SHEET METAL COMPONENTS, COPPER TUBING AND INCLUDING PLASTIC EXTRUSION, VACUUM FORMING AND INJECTION MOLDING PROCESSES TOO.

  • 3
Non AC Components:

WE MANUFACTURE COMPONENTS OTHER DURABLES AND AUTOMOBILES SUCH AS CASE LINERS FOR REFRIGERATOR, PLASTIC EXTRUSION SHEETS, SHEET METAL COMPONENTS FOR MICROWAVE, WASHING MACHINE TUB ASSEMBLIES WITH OTHER SHEET METAL AND PLASTIC INJECTION MOLDING AND EXTRUSION COMPONENTS FOR AUTOMOBILES AND METAL CEILING INDUSTRIES.

History:


Capex plans

In tandem with the growth in its order book, capex of Rs 75-80 crore was incurred in FY19 on R&D and an additional manufacturing line. Amber plans to set up a new manufacturing facility in south India. For this, the company will invest in land and building (worth Rs 30-40 crore) in FY20 and Rs 55-60 crore on a new assembly line in FY21.

Valuation:

Currently stock is valued at PEG Ratio: 0.79, Market Cap to Sales: 0.94, which looks reasonable for decently growing business.

Investment Rational:

  • Long Runway: The penetration of room ACs in Indian households is just 4%, hence long runway ahead, and AC is not luxury item anymore, at-least in north India its becoming necessity, and i don’t see any reason why the whole AC market wont grow in next 10 years, there might be temporary slowdowns, but not permanent one.

  • Decently growing company: In last 6 years sales has grown 3x where as profit has grown 4-5x.

  • Consolidating market: Most of the AC brands are their customers, and some competition is going away as LEEL almost collapsed due to fraud, so Amber is able to consolidate market, they also acquired Sidwal (Market leader in Railway & Metro AC), IL Jin and Ever electronics(AC Parts maker) recently.

  • Focused approach: till date all the acquisition and expansion Amber did are majorly focused on AC market, which i think is good as manufacturing is game of scale & efficiency.

  • To promote ‘Make in India’ initiatives, the government has imposed steep custom duties on imported RACs and its components. This should help Amber bag new contracts.

  • Recently they added both Amazon India & Flipkart as there customers and decent growth from digital market.

Risks/Concerns:

  • Technological disruption in AC tech: although i think it’s low probability, still it can happen.

  • Customer Concentration: 75% of sales is from top 5 customer only, which is quite concentrated.

  • Stiff competition in the consumer durables business, RAC brands are forced to take price cuts in a bid to gain market share, This could put Amber’s margin under pressure since its contracts are B2B (business-to-business) in nature.

  • Demand slowdown: as in current scenario demand of even food products is effected, and of-course consumer discretionary items can experience bigger slowdown like auto’s.

  • Company looks aggressive in acquisitions as in last 2-3 years they acquired 3 companies, acquisitions are usually considered risky way for expanding business, one wrong acquisition can plague the company.

References:



Disc: Still Evaluating and its work in progress and have a initial position @ 825.

Appreciate members feedback, point of view on Amber business and Quality of Management as someone said, in India, Management is multiplicative factor if management is zero everything goes to Zero.

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United Spirits Limited (USL) - Diageo India

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@suru27 wrote:

Was surprised to see that one of most well-known company does not have a thread and thought to create a thread for the same. However, going through researching this script has been one of complex experiences though exciting.

So, let us start from the start. United Spirits Limited, abbreviated to USL, is an Indian alcoholic beverages company, and the world’s second-largest spirits company by volume. It is a subsidiary of Diageo PLC.

Background:

The company originated as a trading company called McDowell and Company (also known as McDowell & Co, McDowell or McDowell’s), founded in India in 1826 by Angus McDowell, a Scot.

In 1959, Mallya established the company’s first distillery at Cherthala. McDowell’s began bottling Bisquit Brandy and Dorville French Brandy, from imported, becoming the first company to manufacture Indian Made Foreign Liquor(IMFL). The company opened India’s first distillation plant to manufacture extra neutral alcohol (ENA) at Cherthala in 1961.

Fast forward to 2013, On 27 May 2013, Diageo PLC acquired a 10% stake in United Spirits at a cost of ₹20,927,196,000 (US$300 million). It also separately acquired an additional 58,668 shares for ₹ 85,778,082. On 4 July 2013, Diageo bought an additional 14.98% of the company for ₹31.35 billion (US$450 million). Diageo acquired an additional 21.77 million shares at a cost of ₹1,440 (US$21) per share in an off-market-deal from United Spirits’ promoters, raising its holdings to 25.02 per cent of the company. Following that purchase, Diageo held 36.3 million shares in USL, acquired at a cost of ₹52,358.5 million (US$760 million), making it the largest shareholder. Under pressure from Diageo, some substantial changes to the management structure of the firm began to take place in 2013. In 2014, Diageo’s share holdings rose to 54.8% of USL.

There are many informative articles how the overall story unfolded and one can read:

Even though Mallya is out and Diageo PLC is done lot of clean up, still, there are some old wounds which continue to haunt USL and present in various annual reports and we will discuss further. However, below links can give a feel of kinds of tussle which went even post Diageo PLC taking over control.

Current Business and Product Portfolio

Company has 80 brands of scotch, whisky, IMFL whisky, brandy, rum, vodka, gin and wine. In FY 19 company sold over 81.6 million cases, second highest in the world. Company works through 19 manufacturing facilities spread across India.

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The Transition from 2013 till now:
Now, let us see, what Diageo PLC has done in last 5-6 years post take over though it is evident from above links that lot of time went in fixing corporate structure itself to create the basic foundation to start any kind of financial and operational clean up

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As it is evident from above tables that new management has been able to do the herculean task of bringing house in order from one of the worst-case scenarios to a respectable state by fixing balance sheet, cash flows as well as profitability. This has been achieved by:

  1. Overall organization level clean up by getting a new leadership team
  2. Fixing balance sheet by getting rid of non-core assets
  3. Controlling operations and supply chain by improving efficiencies and improving margin
  4. Deep focus on premiumization and improving share of premium segment from 53% of revenue to 66% of revenue in last 3 years through both double-digit volume as well as value growth rate and hence bringing profitability back on track
  5. Improving route to customer strategy across states considering regulatory constraints
  6. Leveraging improving profitability to strengthen balance sheet by improving credit rating and reducing interest cost further and deleveraging debt further
  7. Strengthening and investing in core brands and marketing
  8. Bringing best practices from parent company like technology and data driven marketing and business planning through salesforce automation, MDM and advance analytics

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How has company performed recently:

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Opportunity:

  • Urbanization, Growth in per capita income and young population would provide enough scope for growth

  • Premiumization is phenomenon playing out and should benefit companies like USL

  • Very low chances of disruption

Risks:

  • Highly regulated business with many regulatory issues occurring every 2-3 years like election driven state mandates, highway ban on liquor, non-ending tax hikes, price controls, state level complexities etc.

  • Raw material price fluctuation of ENA making gross margins cyclic to some extent (depending on pricing power of brand and products)

  • Raw material price fluctuation in terms of glass prices for bottling

  • Highly working capital-intensive business with working capital to sales ratio around 40%

  • Legacy legal issues related with banks and state governments

  • Non-core legacy investments like IPL Bangalore

Sources:

  1. Google Search
  2. Annual Reports
  3. Company Presentation
  4. Screener.in
  5. Wikipedia

Disc: Hold a tracking position. Please do your own research. This is not a recommendation by any means

Note: There is much more to cover in terms of industry analysis, financial analysis and legacy and financial issues and will cover slowly in next set of posts. This is just a start.

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Innovators Facade Systems Ltd

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@Adhiraj wrote:

Overview

Facades are the exterior sides of the buildings. They are important from the design point of view. From an engineering point of view, they are important these days as they have a great impact on energy efficiency and costs.
Innovators façade systems limited is an Aluminium Facade contractor for designing, engineering, fabrication and installation of all types of facade systems. The company is headed by Mr. Radheshyam Sharma and has executed total orders of than 1100 crores since inception. He has about two decades of experience in the construction industry.

It has installed facades for many big construction projects such as

Airports (13 of them) – Chandigarh, Indore, Kolkata , Mumbai,etc

Residential - World view Tower

Commercial(for clients like) – DHFL, JW marriot, TCS,etc

And boasts of reputed clients such as AAI, Reliance Industries, Aditya Birla Group, Tata Group, Godrej, Infosys, Cipla ,etc as listed on their website.

All other projects and clients are mentioned in their website.

Financials and Valuations

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The stock has been hammered like most of the market and is near its 52 week low.

FY 2019 results

Annual Report and other Documents

https://www.screener.in/company/541353

Credit ratings

https://www.icra.in/Rationale/ShowRationaleReport/?Id=76243

http://www.careratings.com/upload/CompanyFiles/PR/Innovators%20Façade%20Systems%20Limited-10-23-2018.pdf

ICRA has given B+ and A4 rating for its fund based -cash credit and non fund based -bank guarantee.

CARE has given BBB rating for long term loans of 31Cr and A3 for short term loans and bank facilities of around 60Cr as of Oct 2018.

Brickworks has a BB+ rating for long term facilites but put in a disclaimer stating that the issuer did not cooperate. This is a thing to be concerned about.

Management interview and important points

image

Management interview before the IPO on Zee Business

Query about the company on Zee Business

Shareholding Pattern and Key Investors (As of June 30,2019)

One of the major reasons I became interested in the story and wanted to explore it was presence of marquee investors in it. Their presence shouldn’t hamper our judgement but it is well worth a look.

  • Promoter Holding is around 62%.
  • Vijay Kedia has a 10.14% stake. He initially had a stake around 6% in pre-IPO and has increased it gradually to above 10%.
  • Pantomath Sabrimala Aif Pantomath Sabrimala Sme Growth Fund Series I has a 1.07% stake
  • Madhusudhan Kela owns 3.76% of the company.

Underlying Investment Thesis

Indian facade industry is expected to grow by 20% yoy and Innovators facade is one of the major players in facade industry. It is the only listed player at the moment and available at a market cap of less than 100Cr while the market is valued at 15,000Cr and expected to grow rapidly as use of facades increases in newly constructed buildings. It is one of the few organized players in this segment and boasts a portfolio and well-established projects.

The company had revenue of around 100Cr in FY17 which grew around 50% in FY18 to 154 Cr but remained steady to 157 Cr in FY19. Margins declined in FY19 which led to decrease in profitability from 7.91 Cr to 4.65 Cr. As a result, the stock has been hammered to almost half the IPO price and available at close to book value. It had a 300 Cr order at start of FY19 and if the management is to be believed, order book is not a challenge but their capacity to deliver on it is. Given the huge demand and growth of the industry, attractive valuations, presence of marquee investors and a huge order book, this business seems like a story worth exploring. There are certain risks I am certainly aware about and they should be taken into consideration while evaluating this business.

It is an interesting story and if management plays it right, it can generate good returns due to its huge market potential.

CMP - 34.5
Market Cap - 65 Cr
Book Value - 36.21
P/E - 8.22
ROCE - 18.28
Debt to Equity - 0.77

Risks

  • Illiquid stock - Difficult to get out once invested. Especially if the company underperforms or falls in some trouble.
  • High Debt - Money from IPO helped them to reduce their debt by half and to help them with their working capital requirements. But still total debt(long term + short term) is at a high level when compared to shareholder equity and liquidity.
  • Management Risk – Not much information is there available on the management. The board is led by father-son duo. This point is important because there has been great erosion of wealth in many companies in the past couple of years majorly due to management issues i.e. bad ethics and bad capital allocation. So, it is important to keep an eye for it.
  • Lack of information available – There is not much information available about the company and it is not covered by any research analysts. This makes it hard to evaluate the business. Also, I was not able to gather much information about its competitors from India and outside India. A simple façade google search will show some of its competitors and a few of them have completed some impressive projects.
  • Company’s operations are working capital intensive and have high receivables and inventory days. Also, the revenue from top three customers comprised 40% of their total revenues in FY18. Majority of their contracts are from Maharashtra and Delhi. This exposes them to the risk of geographic concentration and client concentration.

Other Information:

  • Bankers – Indian Bank, Oriental bank of Commerce
  • Auditors – S G C O & LLP
  • Listed only in BSE
  • Had IPO in May 2018 at BSE SME platform

I am a new investor and this is my first write-up on this forum. Please tell me if any inconsistencies are present in this write-up. I will be happy to correct them and grateful for inputs.
Fellow valuepickrs, please share your thoughts regarding this opportunity.

Disclosure: Invested small tracking amount and looking for more clarity. Interested in the story as I feel it has great potential.

Disclaimer:

I am not a SEBI registered analyst or a financial adviser. This post is not a recommendation or endorsement in any way. Please exercise caution before making an investment decision.

References:

http://innovators.in/

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Finding initial red flags - Corporate governance and management issues in Indian companies

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@Rohitsharma wrote:

I did not find any thread regarding this , so I have created this one. Purpose of creating this thread is to find out and avoid the companies which may have corporate governance issue and bad management. I know that we cant not be 100% sure but at least looking for red flags can help us in reducing our losses.

I started my investment in stock market from 2012 as a beginner with no knowledge of stock market ( with hopes of becoming another warren buffet)…lol…:laughing: after reading few books on warren buffet.
I started learning and in last 7 years I have observed that most of the money which I lost in market were the companies having some kind of corporate governance issues or management was not trustworthy. Luckily , due to diversification I did not went bankrupt :stuck_out_tongue: , but still loss is a loss. I lost my capital in below companies ( this is what I remember , could be few more).

  1. Eros
  2. Tree house
  3. PC Jwellars
  4. Yes Bank
  5. Kingfisher
  6. Atlanta
  7. DHFL
  8. 8 K miles
  9. Meghmani organics
  10. Suder garments
  11. Vakrangee
  12. Talwalkars
  13. Manpasand Beverages

I would like people to share there views on how can we avoid such blunders or reduce our exposure before its too late. Most of the time , stock crashes suddenly after some news comes out and we get stuck in the stock.

Kindly share your views on below points , so that we can try to minimize our losses in future.

  1. What are the qualities of a good management ?
    (till last year , I use to think that yes bank is bank with v good management , until issues came out in public)

  2. How can we trust and verify the financial no.s. ?
    ( Some of the companies in which I have invested were seems to have strong balance sheet that time , but suddenly some news came and stocks got hammered and never recovered e.g. PC Jwellars , 8 K miles etc.)

  3. Can the auditors be trusted ? If not , what is the option for a small retail investors. For many stock
    auditors resigned suddenly and stock was hammered and never recovered.

  4. Assuming we invested for long term , is it wise to stay invested having a huge notional loss , assuming that management will change and things will improve in long term (example , YES Bank) , I don’t know what Long term means here , ( 5 years , 10 years or more than 10 years). How long should we wait for things to revive or we should book losses and look for some other stocks.

Please feel free to add more questions. Moderators can delete the post if they don’t find it relevant to forum’s guidelines.

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Indiamart Intermesh - Indian Alibaba?

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@vnktshb wrote:

IndiaMART InterMESH, India’s largest online business-to-business (B2B) marketplace for business products and services did an IPO recently which was entirely an offer for sale (OFS), priced between Rs 970 to Rs 973 per share.

IndiaMart did not receive any proceeds from the issue. Promoters Dinesh Chandra Agarwal and Brijesh Kumar Agrawal will sold 14,30,109 shares through the issue. Post the IPO, IndiaMart’s promoters holding fell to 53%, from 58% earlier. Other big investors Intel Capital (Mauritius), Amadeus IV DPF and Accion Frontier Inclusion Mauritius also offloaded some of their holdings through this issue.

5 anchor investors, included ICICI Mutual Fund, HDFC Mutual Fund, SBI Mutual Fund, Birla Mutual Fund, SAIF Partners, Hornbill Capital Advisers LLP and Malabar India.

Financials
The company has witnessed consistent growth in its revenue over the past three financial years. In FY17, the company’s revenue stood at Rs 317.8 crore, while in FY18 and FY19 it grew to Rs 410.51 crore and Rs 507.42 crore, respectively. It posted a loss of Rs 64 crore in FY17. In FY18, its adjusted profit after tax (PAT) came in at Rs 55 crore. But in FY19, it de-grew to Rs 20 crore.

In 1QFY20 the company delivered a PAT of Rs 32crs

IndiaMART had a negative net worth of Rs 390 crore as on March 31, 2017, and Rs 321.26 crore in 2018. As on March 31, 2019, its net worth had turned positive, at Rs 1,598.88 million. “Its negative net worth as on March 31, 2017, and in 2018 was primarily on account of its operating losses and net loss/(gain) on financial assets and liabilities designated at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL) in the respective fiscal/period.

Latest Company PPT

IPO Prospectus
https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebi_data/attachdocs/jul-2018/1530686922831.pdf

Alibaba
Alibaba.com is the world’s largest global e-commerce platform for small and medium sized businesses around the world. The platform, serves more than 18 million buyers and sellers from more than 240 countries and regions, showcases products ranging from raw materials to finished goods in more than 40 industry categories. Alibaba doesn’t sell products and services itself, instead, it runs a platform that connects B2B buyers and sellers. Alibaba.com is free to join and makes most of its sales from commissions and advertising.

It is the go-to English-language platform for cross-border trade and helps small/medium businesses worldwide expand to overseas markets. The platform, which serves more than 18 million buyers and sellers from more than 240 countries and regions, showcases products ranging from raw materials to finished goods in more than 40 industry categories.

If you are a seller, you can display up to 50 products/services for free or if you get the Gold membership you get a really nice mini-site to display unlimited products or services. If you are a buyer, post what you need in a ‘Request for Quote’ and let sellers come to you.

IndiaMart

India’s largest B2B marketplace with a 60% market share. IndiaMART has 1.5 million sellers and attracts 1.6 million daily visitors. Like Alibaba, IndiaMART provides Basic and Premium membership services in which sellers can create their own homepage. showcase products online, source and contact global buyers, reply to buying leads and post offers to sell. The model and functionality is almost identical to that of Alibaba.com and like Alibaba, IndiaMART allows sellers outside of India to promote themselves.

Trade India is very similar to IndiaMart and is the second largest B2B marketplace for small and medium sized companies in India.

TradeIndia
TradeIndia launched in 1996 and is headquartered in New Delhi and claims to be the first Indian B2B marketplace to have more than 2 million registered users, of which 1.3 million are SMEs. Like Alibaba, TradeIndia provides Basic and Premium membership services in which sellers can create their own mini-site to showcase products and locate and global buyers.

# IndiaMart CEO Dinesh Agarwal On Competition From Alibaba & TradeIndia, Revenue Streams; Auctions & Marketplaces

Q. What are your key revenue streams?

Ans. We create websites, microsites and catalogs. We do a complete turn key package – designing, hosting, offering higher listing on Indiamart, Search Engine Optimization. We submit the sites to various business directories. So this is a subscription package where you know the website designing and hosting portion has become a minuscle in terms of revenue. Most of the people come to Indiamart not to have a four page microsite designed for Rs. 25,000, but because they see that there is a value in listing that they get on Indiamart platform.

Q. What kind of value adds are you offering on top of that?
Ans. On top of that there are pure advertising services which are more of a top listing, premium listing, banner advertising on a relevant category, special listing on product search. So these are value added products; We also have hundreds and thousands of micro product-specific portals for Apparels, Plastic, Chemicals etc. So we offer sectional sponsorship. We are slowly and slowly moving from a listing fee based model to a lead based model. Our initial model always contains a minimum commitment, where we gave a minimum guarantee – if you are spending Rs.25,000 with us please expet atleast 50 good enquiries in a year from the website. We’ve realized that some customers have matured enough to be able to go to pay per click or pay per lead model as well.

Q. So how do you look at it going forward now?
Ans. We launched a buy lead section, a business prospect finder section, which is mostly for lead generation section. So is a mix of things – a cataloguing plus basic listing fee that comes under subscription revenue, pure listing fees which are on the top of basic listing fees that could be premium listing and payed listing and banner advertising. Then there is a pay per lead revenue. If you see then 5-6 years back 80-90% of our business was purely cataloguing and subscription revenue only 5-10% was pure listing fee and advertising fee. Today 60-70% is cataloguing revenue and about 30% comes from purely listing and premium listing fee …you know those are experienced Internet and Indiamart users, and going forward I think that pay per lead would also become a sizeable chunk of that.

Q. From a listing based model, do you see yourself launching a marketplace like E-Lance and facilitate the entire transaction?
Ans. I don’t think that we can move to a transactional model in the immediate or medium term. , but if we take the basic concept where we can connect the buyers and sellers, without the money part – it’s the pay per lead model. That’s in the trade offer section at Indiamart.

Q. What about auctions?
Ans. As I said, the price discovery does not happen, though we tried an auction model in late 1999. What happens is that B2B is slightly different than B2C – it’s not an off the shelf product, nobody wants an off the shelf product. Most of the people have their own sizing, colours, quality parameters and the deals are not in few thousand rupees but mostly in few Lac Rupees. Buyers and sellers have to talk 5-10 times before they can settle on a price. For example, if there’s an offer to buy 50,000 pairs of socks – there someone is going to make a pitch that I can offer you one variety in 30 days for 1$, another for $1.25 or this kind for $1.3 etc, depending on quality and size. So the price discovery would not take place on a B2B Market Exchange. But I can facilitate buyer and supplier discovery, and whether they do business depends on their requirements.

Q. If you’re looking at a lead generation model, and your primary clients are the sellers – the number of leads would go down in a downturn…
Ans. Yes, but then at the same time the requirements for these leads would go up. Then the sellers who might not have been using the Internet previously but going around the world to trade fairs, would look at the possibility of using the Internet to sell their product. See the Internet finds you unknown buyers, unknown markets. We ourself as a company have discovered some market possibiities which which were strong on the internet.

Q. Like what?
Ans. Like travel. We had never ever even focussed on travel being a B2B company. We might have made a few travel websites by chance and we found that those customers were more satisfied and at that point of time we started doing a lot of marketing on travel and a significant amount of revenue started coming from it. A little more later, in terms of service we discovered that packers and movers became hot. Engineering goods also started doing very well. So we keep discovering new categories where suppliers and buyers find each other. The Tnternet throws you unknown possiblities, just by trying it out. I am sure that in this kind of a downturn lot of suppliers would come to Internet to try out different things. That may not compensate fully for the total market loss that happened because of the downturn but it ened mup making a new market for us.

Q. Talking about the competition, your success depends on the buyer base that you have. Won’t an Alibaba come in with a fairly large global database of buyers whereas you would come with a large database of sellers?
Ans. Alibaba comes in equally with a large number of suppliers from China – that is their strength and weakness both. Indian suppliers typically do not want to compete with Chinese suppliers, and they will have to do that on an Alibaba type of platform. The whole world has been looking at China as their supplier, which is why Alibaba has done so well. If the buyer preference changes, they will start logging on more to IndiaMart more because they know that AliBaba provides chinese suppliers.

Q. But then it becomes important for Alibaba to market their services in India better to develop their supplier base. Then there’s going to be competition for you to get suppliers…
Ans. Obviously, and if you really see the market size is very large. It’s a trillion dollar trade opportunity. By the entry of Alibaba, the supplier base will be more educated – more competition is more market development. If you see the example of Naukri.com and Monster both are existing together, and both are equally big. If you see China, it has an equally large player called Global Sources, Made in China, EC21 and there might be 200 smaller ones.

Q. So what about TradeIndia then?
Ans. I cannot comment on them. They are primarily a print company, while we are primarily an Internet company. See when I started I was only 1/10th of their size. Today we are probably 3 to 4 times their size. We have been consistently growing at a 50-60% rate and they must be growing at a slower rate. They must have their own set of market priorities and choices. Growth of anything below 40% is not acceptable for me, and I don’t know if in any of these years they would have achieved any of these minimum figures. So TradeIndia has always been a good follower of ours on the Internet.

# IndiaMart CEO Dinesh Agarwal On Why The Upturn Made Him Raise Funds

Q. How has the downturn impacted you?

Ans. I think the latter part of the upturn affected us more than the downturn. We were highly cashflow positive business, and towards the end of 2006-2007, there was market frenzy. Our costs were going up unnecessarily and the whole business model started to look non-feasible in the medium or the longer term. If costs were to grow at 30-40-50% growth, I didn’t see the businesses flourishing in the long run. That is when I decided to raise the money. We would never thought of raising money otherwise.

Q. Your employee cost must have gone up significantly…

Ans. Yes, that and real estate cost went up significantly during the upturn. That was the initial feeler for me that if tomorrow some serious competition came in and spent a lot of money, we would be in a crunch situation. With the downturn, the market expectation in terms of costing will come down; it will impact our customers as well, which would indirectly impact our topline. But these are the times when Internet advertising grows.

Q. How has the company been doing and how do you think the market will evolve?

Ans. IndiaMart has been a profitable company since day one. We have been growing consistently over the years, whether it was a downturn or not, within a range of anywhere between 30-40% to 65-70%. If you just compute the basic CAGR it is approximately 40-60% CAGR per year over many years. But those were times when our total revenue base itself was at a smaller size. I don’t think that many businesses were adept at using the Internet at a very large scale 4-5 years ago.

In the last 10 years, two things have happened – the Internet penetration and connectivity have become somewhat reliable and secondly, businesses have started responding to the opportunity on the Internet. The second generation has now started participating in the businesses, and an inflexion point is about to come in the Indian business Internet usage, the same way it did in China 8-10 years ago. Now I feel that at a large revenue base like ours, to maintain a growth of 40-60% over the next few years we might have to spend a larger amount of money on different activities like advertising and marketing, and a strong management team. We have not been advertising.

Q. You have had feet on the ground…lots of people in sales…

Ans. That is true. But if you want to penetrate into slightly medium and larger SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises), a brand pull has to be created. Because we want to consolidate our position as a strong leader, it is prudent to spend a good amount of money on the market initiatives – not just do sales. We have been very strong in sales with a thousand people strong team. We also think marketing will help us attract better talent.

Q. Didn’t you sign up for BCCLs Private Treaties for the marketing?

Ans. Yes we did.

Q. So why not continue with BCCL rather than going with Intel Capital?

Ans. Intel is probably going to complement it with money. BCCL has media properties, but for a larger market pull, you need to invest across various media…and you cannot do private treaty deals with 7 different media houses.

Q. Did you have any issues with the valuations? From what we’re told, Times Private Treaties valued you rather high; So did Intel capital go for a down-round?

Ans. No it was not a down round; it was a slightly better round than that…but in terms of multiples we might have gone down because when we raised BCCL round it was at the height of 2006 and it was more of a barter deal, without cash infusions. The multiples are definitely lower this time, but we have grown to almost double our size since then, so the overall valuation is higher this time.

Q. Where is the synergy with Intel Capital? You’re a B2B marketplace…

Ans. For me, they are more of a venture capital fund. I met different venture capital companies over the last two years. Intel matched better with us, they had a longer horizon, and are less impatient than some of the pure VC firms. Some of them think that you have to burn faster to run faster . Somehow my companys DNA does not match with that, we have been a slow, steadily growing company. We are not at that stage where we are a small company, and we not do need a day to day guidance. I mean, we have been able to grow sustainably to a thousand people team.

Q. So where is the exit for Intel Capital?
Ans. I would say that IPO would be an exit for them, or an M&A possibility, but that is not going to be any time soon.

# No Single Category Contributes More Than 10% To Our Revenues - IndiaMart CEO Dinesh Agarwal

Q. What are your expansion plans?

Ans. There are 2-3 things: We have started to utilize our database of SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises) to expand our offerings. We participate in almost 150 trade fairs across the world – half of them in India, half outside – and end up spending almost a million dollars per year on that. To strengthen our buyer relationships we came out with a sourcing guide or a buyers guide, which lists our clients, and has additional advertising for revenues. That also brings buyers back to IndiaMart.com as a platform for updated information. Most of the big companies in our space have been print Yellow Pages initiatives that have gone to the Internet. For us, going to Print is a buyer acquisition strategy, and there can be other media like mobile and Interactive TV going forward.

The other is a geographical expansion – we cover about 60-100 cities from 25 offices across india, and we want to penetrate deeper and broader into Indian territories, going into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities as well. We might even look at international opportunities.

Q. What is the kind of dependency do you have on specific categories?

Ans. Our dependency on any particular category is low. No single category contributes more than 10% to our revenues. That is the precise reason why we have been able to survive different types of market situations.

Q. What is the range, in terms of the revenues, of the sellers in your platform?

Ans. Around 90% of them range from from Rs. 50 lakhs to Rs. 50 crores…probably 60% range from Rs. 1-10 crore range. Most of them are small and medium enterprises, with small scale companies having a larger share.

Q. How do you see this mix evolving, as you increase marketing spends and roll out your expansion plans?

Ans. Two different things will happen – one is that obviously the small is going to have the larger share, but with our marketing spends, I see a slightly larger size of SMEs coming on board with us; these are normally late in adopting any kind of technology because of their corporative structures. We think middle and slightly larger SMEs will become the part of our database.

Our entry level services start at Rs. 20-25,000, but there are lot of customers who pay us in excess of Rs. 1 or 2 lakhs per year. The growth would probably happen in all the segments parallely, but we expect that a larger chunk of medium sized enterprises will contribute higher revenue and a large number of small suppliers that would contribute to the data base.

Q. Makes me wonder…how did you start out? How did you get your first client?

Ans. When we started out, we collected association directories, from Federation of Indian Exporters, Ph.D. Chambers of Commerce, CII and attended certain Trade Fairs…we collected the data and sent mails and bulk faxes to them. We started as a website making company, and the IndiaMart market place came much later – the marketplace was a by-product of the website making business. Because I was making businesses websites and I thought it would be a prudent to keep on making a directory of business websites.

So the first few clients that we attracted were primarily for website making. Nirula’s, one plastic wholesaler, one leather exporter were some of the first clients that we started with. I am proud to say today that Nirula’s is still with us after 12 years. We were the first ones that accepted credit cards on Nirula’s website in India. Theirs was a single page website and then we launched Nirulas.com. Others include Jindal steel, the Triveni group, and also some exporters.

The mix changed during 1998-99 when inbound travel and tourism took off. We were making websites for Indian Travel Agencies and Tour Operators, and much of our revenue at that time was from inbound tour operators in Delhi, as inbound tourism is concentrated around Delhi. I think it continued till September 11th, 2001, and after that once the travel market went down the drain. By then, our B2B marketplace was matured enough, and took a fast growth path. In 2006 we claimed 10,000 clients.

Q. When talking to customers during the initial stages, what did you pitch to them?

Ans. We pitched to them a website and a business through the website – we always knew that Internet would be used to generate business through searching from AltaVista and Yahoo. There were very few Indian websites at that point of time – if you searched for a “Restaurant in Delhi”, Nirula’s website or “leather exporter in India”, our websites would show up high on search. But as more websites were created over the years in India, search engines began tracking more sites – newer and smaller websites. At the same time the market place caught on.

Today the traffic mix for the websites we make is 60-70% through Indiamart.com and 20-30% direct, while earlier it used to be 10-20% through Indiamart.com and 80% direct. So over the years things have changed the market place has started gaining momentum and stickiness. But, from day one, we were commited to making business websites for the purpose of generating business, and not just for using it on a visiting card – whether directly through search, or indirectly through Indiamart.com.

Q. You have also tried the B2C space – with the Indian Gifts Portal

Ans. It was launched in 1999 as a subsidary company, but before the Intel Capital funding, we hived it off…de-subsidarized it. It remains in my ownership, and continues to grow at a 40-60% per annum though we are not marketing it actively.

Q. What percentage of your revenue comes from ABC payments.

Ans. Maybe 3-4%, less than 5 for sure.

Q. Did you try any other B2C initiatives? You tried Hotel Reservations…

Ans. We still do about 5% of the business from travel and we are in the process of launching another small travel lead aggregation business. We launched the hotel reservation business as a part of the travel business, but I think the time was not right in the year 2001. Our expertise was in the foreign inbound tourism space, and hotel reservation was an extension. Now there are many players in the travel space, and I don’t think we will ever go back into the hotel reservation or B2C travel.

Disclosure: Invested

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Pasupati Acrylon - A Smallcap Gem

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@anandsharp wrote:

Overview
Pasupati Acrylon Limited is an India-based company, which is engaged in the manufacture of acrylic fiber, tow and tops, and PPT films. The Company has an acrylon manufacturing plant at Thakurdwara in the state of Uttar Pradesh. It has a manufacturing capacity of approximately 42,000 tons per annum (TPA). It offers a range of deniers, ranging between 0.9 to 15 denier; cut lengths, ranging between 38 to 150 millimeters (mm), and luster in various categories, such as bright, semi-dull and gel dyed. Its products are used in various sectors, such as sweaters, shawls, apparels, blankets, carpets and upholstery. It also offers specialty products, such as hydrolon and low pill of shrinkable fiber. It offers fiber as raw white, including bright or semi dull; bleached, including optical white; tow dyed in various colors, and gel-dyed in a range of colors. It exports fiber and tow to various countries, such as China, South America, Israel, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey and Europe.

Company Profile
ACRYLIC
Pasupati Acrylon Limited started commercial operation in the year 1990. The plant was set up in technical collaboration with SNIA BPD Italy.

Pasupati was designed for a rated capacity of 15000TPA. By means of various innovative modifications and debottlenecking the capacity has been enhanced to 30,000 MT. Now with the installation of an additional spinning line the capacity has been further enhanced to a level of 42,000 TPA. Advanced technology, automation, computerized process control systems and captive power, make the operations of Pasupati extremely efficient and reliable. Pasupati is one of the best plants in the world, running on SNIA technology.

Pasupati product conforms certification under ISO 9001:2008, this certificate indicates our commitment in meeting global quality and standards.
Pasupati product range is very wide , it has maximum range of Deniers (0.9-15.0Denier), Cut lengths (38-150mm) and Luster (Bright , Semi-dull and Gel Dyed). Its products have found end uses in varying sectors like Sweaters ,Shawls, apparels, Blankets, Carpets and Upholstery.

Product : Acrylic fiber/ Tow/ Tops
Commercial production : 1990
Present capacity : 42000 TPA
Sales Turnover : 100 Million USD ( equivalent to Rs.600cr)

CPP FILM

The company has diversified into CPP Film (flexible packaging) and has set up manufacturing capacity of 5000 MTPA which started commercial operations since September, 2017. The total cost of the project was Rs.32 crore funded entirely through internal accruals. The company is currently ramping up the production and FY19 would be the first full year of operations for the CPP project. The company is selling the CPP Films under the B2B model, primarily to converters. The company has reported income of Rs.8 crore from this segment during FY18 (6 months of operations). The company has further expanded its CPP capacity by another 5000 MTPA with a total cost of Rs.20 crore funded through internal accruals in Q4FY19.

In this new CPP division of PAL, producing Film thickness 15 micron to 200 micron such as Natural CPP ( Lamination Grade) / White Opaque/Met CPP/ Medical Grade natural and Colour both / Bread Packaging, also with Anti fog/Retort/Peel-able properties.

Key Strength
Pasupati Acrylon Limited (PAL) was established in 1982 and has established itself in the industry as leading manufacturer of Acrylic Staple Fibre (ASF). The domestic ASF industry is concentrated among 3 large manufacturers totaling to around 104,000 Metric Tonnes Per Annum (MTPA) of overall capacity. PAL is one of the largest acrylic producers in the country with 42,000 MTPA

Financial

It’s virtual debt free company.
Total cash and other financial = 70 cr and current mcap is 128 crore.

Disc. Initial entry into the stock at around 15 rs. Invested .

Risk: In Acrylic industry, rise in raw material prices (Acrylonitrile) may impact on margin. Acrylonitrile (ACN) the major raw material (~90% of total cost) being a derivative of crude demonstrates volatility. Inability to pass on increase in the raw material cost might have adverse impact on the profitability of the company.

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Goodyear India: Enjoy the Ride

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@dineshssairam wrote:

Goodyear India (https://www.goodyear.co.in/)

Company Overview

Goodyear India is in the business of manufacturing and trading in tires, tubes and flaps. The company is a market leader in the Tractor Tires segment, with a ~30% market share (~22% in front tires and ~36% in rear tires). The company also manufactures CV tyres and some offroad tires. Along with this, they also trade in Goodyear branded PV tyres (Interestingly the company also imports and sells very few quantities of tires for airplanes).

Business Overview

The business is fairly straightforward. The major raw material is natural rubber. The products are produced out of the Ballabgarh plant. The trading business of PV tyres is done on behalf of Goodyear South Asia Tyres Private Limited in Aurangadabad (So very low margin, decent volume business).

In the farm segment (Which is its major breadwinner), the company supplies to almost every major OEM. They regularly win awards from being the preferred supplier. However, what with their tires being on the slightly premium side, they are not very big on the replacement market.

Currently, the company is venturing into the PV segment (i.e. Goodyear India itself), starting with SUV tires. In fact, the company launched 2 new tyres for the PV segment very recently. There are also plans to come up with tires specifically for EVs in India (This is not new for the parent at least. For instance, Goodyear Eagle Touring/TO tyres are already being marketed for EVs elsewhere).

Here’s the management’s latest interview discussing the business:

Industry Overview

There is no need to justify the importance of farming in India. However, most of India’s agricultural land employs physical labor. The farm mechanization rates leave a lot to be desired:

main-qimg-a001b3b4bf64546bf279ff203d089194
(Source)

If you’re wondering whether large, costly machines are actually a drag on the costs to farmers, they are not:

main-qimg-655ebc2613bdf78b5fa9ad60418df231
(Source)

There’s a proven direct relationship between farm power availability and farming yields. The savings are pegged at 15-20% for Seeds, 15-20% for Fertilizers and 5-20% for Cropping Intensity.

There are several uses in Tractors, but majorly in:

  • Converting waste land into cultivable land
  • Decreased workload on women
  • Ensuring farm safety
  • Encouraging young people to get into farming, increasing productivity

GOI has also, time and again, established the importance of its support to the farming community. The government’s various schemes on agricultural credit has been useful. In fact, a more recent move is the Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanization. NABARD even came out with a detailed paper on why they feel this is important.

Business Analysis - SWOT

Strengths

  • GIL is backed by a strong global parent and work culture, which means a conservative financial outlook and a very long term view
  • Infact, all Goodyear tire-related R&D and technological innovation is done at Innovation centers in Akron, USA and Luxembourg, EU. In effect, what this means is that the subsidiaries/arms do not spend a dime on R&D, but get the full benefits of it (Or at the very least, incur very low expense on R&D since it is centralized)
  • Strong relationship with their OEM clients. In fact, in the farm segment last year they won ‘Best Supplier’ award from M&M and TAFE, while receiving ‘Best Delivery’ award from Escorts and an ‘Excellence’ award from John Deere. Many of these awards have been won in succession for several years, or at the least with only a few gap years.
  • Strong production management. The management team has insisted that they manage Supply-Demand very well and have had no problems with Working Capital. This shows, because the company has been operating at very low or negative Working Capital levels for the entire last decade.
  • As with most seasoned auto players, Goodyear India has a vast network of suppliers across India.

Weaknesses

  • Being an auto part manufacturer, they are linked directly to the auto cycle. Although the farm segment is not as cyclical as the PV or CV segment (Unless the downcycle is caused due to drying up of credit, which is what’s happening in part right now)
  • Rubber is the major raw material and any sudden spurts in price can hit the Margins. Even when the management insists that they manage their Margins well, the numbers tell a different picture. Rest assured, rubber prices do impact the bottomline in a meaningful way.
  • As already mentioned, Goodyear India farm tires are on the premium side and do not sell well on the replacement market

Opportunities

  • GOI’s push to double farm income and increase farm mechanization rates directly translates to commensurate business for the company
  • The latest venture into the CV space has been a long time coming and is definitely a good opportunity in front of the company today. But at this point, it is too early to judge just how big it is.
  • The focus on EV tires is a long pipe dream. But it could be a good optionality.

Threats

  • The single biggest threat facing the tires industry in India is China. Sadly, the import restrictions on tires is not big at all and cheap Chinese tires flood India every year. At least as far as GIL is concerned, this only further impacts their replacement business, because their OEM partners wouldn’t even dream about partnering with a knock-off tire manufacturer from China.
  • Any of the big tire players deciding to enter the farm tires market is always a possible threat (The entry barrier would not apply to them since they have their own networks)

Red Flags / Risks

Goodyear India, being backed by a well-known and clean global management, inherits many those good qualities too. There is nothing fishy going on anywhere in the company and I invite you to challenge my view.

Financials

Source: https://www.ratestar.in/company/goodyear/500168/Goodyear-India-Ltd-100168

In a short summary, I would say Goodyear India is extremely conservative when it comes to financing and growth. The liquid cash on their books is about ~25-30% of the Market Cap and has always been that way in the past. So if you’re looking for a high growth firm, this is not it. What it is, is a cash guzzler with a sizable market opportunity and good dividends to boot.

Valuation

I have not re-valued the company since I purchased it. I bought it at some discount to the CMP a few years back. So in my opinion, at CMP (Rs. 921) the stock is probably slightly undervalued. If I ever re-value the company, I will be sure to update this section.

Disclosure

Goodyear India is one of the largest positions (~15%) in my portfolio. My views may be biased.

Important References

Goodyear India Investor Relations
SMAM - Operational Guidelines
NABARD Paper on Farm Mechanization
ICICI Thematic Report on Farm Mechanization
A Brief History of Goodyear India

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Pulz Electronics - proxy to the Indian entertainment sector

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@NNaik wrote:

I found this stock while looking for Micro-Caps (< 50 crore market cap) which show good returns and growth with zero debt. It is currently trading below its recent IPO price of Rs 56 (Current Price - 38, Market Cap 10.36 Cr.)

Company is in the business of manufacture and installation of high end speaker systems in multiplexes and studios in corporate setup. It supplies to likes of PVR, Cinemax, UFO and INOX as well as corporates like Reliance, Hindujas as well as Government to Army, Navy, Airports etc. It installs the audio systems on project basis and also undertakes AMCs which forms a small portion of its current revenue.

They have a plant near Mumbai and also a warehouse. They import from OEMs in Europe. I am still trying to understand the value addition that Pulz does as well as what is the competition to the company. This will be key to understand the sustainability of the growth.

The growth numbers are strong with 3 year Sales CAGR of 23% with around 10% NPM. Key numbers

Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Sales 5.28 9.21 11.77 12.98 13.76 18.04 24.00
Operating Profit 0.39 0.48 0.46 0.67 2.21 2.33 3.40
Net profit 0.21 0.10 0.01 0.30 1.34 1.62 2.46
EPS 4.20 2.00 0.20 6.00 6.70 5.94 9.02
Price to earning 6.49 4.42
Price - - - - - 38.57 39.87
RATIOS:
Dividend Payout 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.69%
OPM 7.39% 5.21% 3.91% 5.16% 16.06% 12.92% 14.17%

IT has paid dividend for the first time this year.

While the Returns are good Inventory has been building up which is sometimes seen in growing business but is a definite watchout as it has been increasing.

PULZ ELECTRONICS LTD Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Sales 5.28 9.21 11.77 12.98 13.76 18.04 24.00
Debtors 0.30 0.35 0.69 1.01 3.11 1.07 1.26
Inventory 2.78 4.61 4.54 3.80 4.46 7.25 10.56
Debtor Days 20.74 13.87 21.40 28.40 82.50 21.65 19.16
Inventory Turnover 1.90 2.00 2.59 3.42 3.09 2.49 2.27
Number of days of Inventory 192 183 141 107 118 147 161
Return on Equity 11% 5% 0% 12% 35% 18% 21%
Return on Capital Emp 11% 10% 14% 48% 32% 34%

Management Quality

Overall information about this group is little hard to come by and the promoters seem to be well qualified for the industry

Mr. Ramakrishnan Krishnaraju Manden Kattilaged 69 years, is the Promoter and Executive Director of our Company.He holds graduation in Science. His Key Competencies includes designing amplifiers, speaker system, Acoustical measurements and calibration for cinemas, auditoriums and studios. He plays a vital role in the management of the Company.

Mr.Anirvan Partha Ghose aged 43 years is the Promoter and Managing Director of the Company. He has done his graduation in Bachelor of Science from St. Xavier’s College, Kolkata and also completed a course in Computer Hardware from Institute of Electronics and Hardware Technology, Kolkata in 1994. He has done specialized audio video training from Dolby Laboratories, Sim2, Sound Engineering and Sound recording Course from Film & Television Institute of Pune in 1997. His Key Competencies includes designing Auditoriums, Cinemas and Recording Studios, Designing and Manufacturing of Audio Equipment, Installation, Calibration and Maintenance of Audio and Projection Equipment in Cinemas He is member of SMPTE, IFFI Technical Committee and NFDC Technical Committee.

Management compensation at 57 Lakh (23% of Net Profit) is on higher side and is another watchout for coming years

Valuation at current levels seem very attractive at PE of 4.2 and should provide good margin of safety.

Overall seems like a good business to be in as companies like PVR have been growing in investing in new multiplexes especially in smaller towns. There should be a good runway for growth in medium term as mix of single screen vs. multiplexes continues to change.

Still researching the company and few things I want to understand are -

  1. How much of value addition is Pulz doing?
  2. Understand the competition and power that suppliers have in Multiplex infrastructure
  3. Understand the audio technology and find out what kind of OEMs are supplying to Pulz and is there any edge due to these relationships.
  4. Understand the management track record more as this is a recent IPO and there is not much of historical data
  5. Understand the nuances of investing in a microcap space and even a small investment will be illiquid with Just 10 Crore market cap of which promoters hold 70% +

Disc: Interested but not yet invested.

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TCNS Clothing- Play on Ethnic wear of woman

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@bhaskarbora67 wrote:

TCNS Clothing Co. Limited is India’s leading women’s branded apparel company in terms of total number of exclusive brand outlets as of May 2018, according to Technopak. The Company designs, manufactures, markets and retails a wide portfolio of women’s branded apparel across multiple brands. The Company sells its products across India and through multiple distribution channels. As of March 31, 2018, the company sold its products through 465 exclusive brand outlets, 1,469 large format store outlets and 1,522 multi-brand outlets, located in 31 states and union territories in India. As of March 31, 2018, the company also sold its products through six exclusive brand outlets in Nepal, Mauritius and Sri Lanka. In addition, the company sold its products through their own website and online retailers.

The company’s product portfolio includes top-wear, bottom-wear, drapes, combination-sets and accessories that cater to a wide variety of the wardrobe requirements of the Indian woman, including every-day wear, casual wear, work wear and occasion wear.

Mr. Onkar Singh Pasricha and Mr. Arvinder Singh Pasricha are promoters of the company, each have over 40 years of experience in the apparel industry, and the Managing Director, Anant Kumar Daga, leads an experienced and professional management team. The Management team, including Anant Kumar Daga currently has a significant ownership stake in the Company. The shareholders also include a fund affiliated with TA Associates, a marquee private equity group.

Mainly 3 brands

a). Brand “W”:W” is a premium fusion wear brand, which merges Indian and western sensibilities with an emphasis on distinctive design and styling. This brand is targeted primarily at the modern Indian woman’s work and casual wear requirements. “ W” has been recognized as the ‘ IMAGES Most Admired Fashion Brand of the Year : by India Fashion Forum consecutively for past three years between 2015 to 2017 . “W” had 258 exclusive brand outlets and 676 large format store outlets located across 148 cities in India and five outlets outside India.

b). Brand “Aurelia”: Aurelia is a contemporary ethnic wear brand targeted at women looking for great design, fit and quality for their casual and work wear requirements. “Aurelia” had 159 exclusive brand outlets and 629 large format store outlets located across 149 cities in India and one outlet outside India.

c) Brand “Wishful”. Wishful is a premium occasion wear brand, with elegant designs catering to women’s apparel requirements for evening wear and occasions such as weddings, events and festivals. The Company is leveraging their “W” store network for selling Wishful products, however, they recently launched first exclusive brand outlet for Wishful, in September 2017.

iv) Revenue from sales of products under brand “W” , “Aurelia” & “Wishfulgrew” is growing at a CAGR of 48.67 %, 70.82 % & 66.66 % respectively during FY13 to FY17 . Moreover, in FY17 the revenue from “W” , “Aurelia” & “Wishfulgrew” accounted for 61.23% , 30.35 % & 8.41% respectively.

Disclosure: Not invested

looking for views from everyone
It is a good play on branded ethnic wear of ladies, good growth in past and looking for better growth ahead

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RITES Ltd – PSU With a Difference

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@aruncph wrote:

**Background: **
Most of the listed PSUs have so many problems – Debt, no growth, stressed assets, issues in cash flow & RoE, Government interference, no pricing power or steady margins, employee cost drags, Plagued by cyclical commodity cycles…

What if there is a PSU, which has none of above issues, growing in revenue & PAT at a increasingly high rate and offers high dividends and guided by a transparent management improving productivity year on year….Welcome Rites ltd.

Rites Ltd is a Miniratna PSU, is consulting & engineering services company, specializing in Railways & transport infrastructure.

Rites Ltd got listed in May 2018, so information available on company is very limited from a historical sense. Information collated by me are from IPO RHP , annual reports, management concalls , interviews etc…

Highlights of RITES ltd :

  1. Signs MoU agreement with Ministry of Railways for every year & takes advantage of market being a PSU (how refreshing for a PSU !)
  2. Zero Debt, Cash rich (currently 1100 crores)
  3. High Margins & ROCE -30%, ROE-20%
  4. No impact from commodity or Impacts in BFSI area or global factors. Only & one thing that matters – Government vision in improving Railways; More the budget & project work in Railways & related sectors, more the growth & profitability

Business Services & Model

MoU Agreement: RITES ltd every year signs a MoU with Ministry of Railways with a revenue target set. So there is clear trajectory set for investors to evaluate yearly progress. MoU signed is only a minimum revenue target. In addition to MoU, they do win other projects domestic/foreign and also in non-Railways sector.

MoU Target for 2018/19 – 1760 crores

RITES achieved 2018/19 -1969 crores (11.9% more)

MoU Target for 2019/20 – 2300 crores

image

image

Governance:

Except for a handful of PSUs, in rest Governance usually is seen to be slack. It’s also a parameter that’s hard to gauge especially in a recently listed entity like RITES. Given this PSU is very similar to a IT company (only in Engineering services), there seems less bureaucracy & more transparency. I request fellow investors to look at conference call transcripts over last few quarters. Current CMD has been very forthcoming in answering all sorts of questions and answers at times go above & beyond expectations (in my opinion).

Productivity

Company has been improving their technology& becoming more digital in their operations including company-wide SAP based Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP); e-procurement for works, goods and services; mobile app for third party inspection services etc. Given most of the work is Project management consultancy, PMP training & certification aid are also given & encouraged along with host of other trainings.

Number of employees have not increased/decreased not even by 1% over the last 9 years. Yet, productivity per employee is only increasing year on year.

In FY19, income per employee was a incredible 67Lakhs.

My Opinion : Though its not apple to apple comparison…Likes of TCS or Infy being consulting companies have this number in USD but pound for pound, this stat for RITES is arguably better than them.

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 CAGR
E mp loyee 3002 3134 3294 3247 3226 3227 3153 3200 3267 3223 0.79%
Income per Employee 21L 28L 28L 33L 39L 36L 41L 47L 49L 67L 13.7%

Opportunity

Opportunity size is humongous.

Slide from RITES corporate presentation:

Best part about RITES is , given it does PMC work for Railways – Once a PMC work is done, as per mgmt, they are most likely to get a sizable pie from the actual project implementation.

Just couple of examples & opportunities:

  • Every Tier 2 or even Tier 3 are getting Metro lines. Rites almost does all PMC work for them. First they submit feasibility study & project report to Government. Then, Government takes the call to implement the project. Then bidding happens for end to end work. Now, Rites could get end to end from design to implementation or they could get just quality assurance or oversight work.
  • Japan based JICA has won the Mumbai-Ahmadabad high speed rail implementation. But to supplement this, RITES is doing turnkey project in Sabarmati for NHSRCL to convert legacy infrastructure of sheds & workshops. In concall mgmt also indicated other corridors are already in discussion phase like Delhi-Chandigarh-Amritsar, Delhi-Mumbai, Vijayawada-Hyderabad-Bangalore-Chennai. RITES will compete & bid for whatever work they could get in these huge scale projects.
  • DFC projects in other sectors & Electrification projects.
  • Non Rail - Interest in HAM road projects, Ports, waterways & airports - domestic or international

Station Redevelopment Opportunity:

This is a very interesting opportunity for RITES. RITES since IPO has been involved in buying a stake in IRSDC (Indian Railway Stations Development Corporation) SPV founded in 2012. As per latest call, worth of their investment will be 50crore in IRSDC (most likely 20% equity). Business plan is awaited from IRSDC. This deal seems very close to happen

Basically, IRSDC is a SPV to develop new stations & upgrade existing stations & monetise the real estate of a station in a PPP model. This SPV has been granted special power to develop stations without seeking local authorities approval.

Opportunity size is nearly 800 stations to develop.

RITES already got 80 crore of engineering solutions work from IRSDC for the 8 station project they got recently. They are also doing PMC work for Ayodhya & Varnasi stations which are at construction stage.

Whats in it for RITES : RITES mandate in these projects includes assessment of real estate potential, develop station scheme, engineering detailing, bid process management and Engineering project management.

Stock Performance :

RITES was 11 PE at time of IPO. Now, at 13PE.

Stock has appreciated 70%+ in last 1.5 years.

They have been paying dividends on every quarter

In addition, Government disinvested further 15% in market by offering bonus shares 1:4

Investment Thesis

Unlike Road projects, Rail based projects don’t have major issues in terms of land ownership etc. Hence their implementation time frame of any rail/metro projects is reasonably quicker.

Government budget in railways has been increasing for the last 5 years & Government has the will to implement station redevelopment, high speed rail & bullet rail etc in coming years.

Ministry of Railways has given RITES, the job of developing a ‘National Rail Plan’ (NRP-2030) for India. Proposed NRP-2030 shall suggest Railway infrastructure to be created by 2030 with a horizon year of 2050. There is clearly a agenda to improve & upgrade railways in every aspect.

So for me, Railways as a sector is a major investment theme

In this, RITES is on top of the list, given their engineering & consulting moat, track record, negligible working capital, asset light, great financials etc etc…

Risks

  • Inherent risk of being a PSU , open to govt policy changes or possible lack of will with certain projects
  • Coach factories like ICF have said in past that they want to do the export sales themselves instead of being through RITES. Latest news reports also says that it is looking to integrate all coach factories and hive off its locomotive and rolling stock manufacturing units into a single entity called “Indian Railway Rolling Stock Company”. There is not much information if RITES would be affected in such scenario.

References :

RITES Corporate presentation :
RITES_Corporate_Presentation_July_2019.pdf (2.2 MB)

Annual report 2018/19:

DISC : Invested since IPO & been buying on Dips (views biased)
Note : This is my first topic here. So feedbacks/comments appreciated

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Racl geartech limited

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@Shikhar wrote:

RACL GEARTECH

Market cap – 75 cr , CMP – 68 , Book Value – 65.5 , ROE – 16 % , ROCE- 17%

Promoter holding – 51.12% ( 28.54 % pledged)

Established in 1989 , based out from New Delhi

RGL (formerly Raunaq Automotive Components Limited) was incorporated in 1983 and is engaged in the business of manufacturing of transmission gears and shafts for automotive and industrial applications. The company was initially promoted by the Raunaq Group. However, due to financial difficulties the company was referred to Board for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR) in 2001. Post-restructuring and with a new management team under leadership of Mr Gursharan Singh (CMD), RGL came out of the BIFR purview in November 2007.

RACL is engaged in the Business of manufacturing of automotive components Transmission Gears and Shafts and other types of gears related to power transmission to engine. RACL manufactures drive train parts for Tractors, Two Wheelers, Electric Car, Three Wheelers, Cargo Vehicles, Light and Heavy commercial vehicles etc.

The company has also expanded into sub-assemblies, industrial Gears for electrical switch Gears and Circuit Breakers, Winches and Cranes.

Manufacturing Plants – Grajuala ( UP) and Noida

Grajuala plant is 100 km from New Delhi , while Noida plant is 15 km away

350 employees are there in the company .

Snapshot of financial performance of company for last 10 years. ( from screener.in)

There has been a consistent rise in sales , margins and profits over time.

Compunded sales growth Compunded profit growth ROE
Last 10 years 12.71% 16.67% 11.87%
Last 5 years 12.78 % 39.19% 12.59 %
Last 3 years 17.37 % 38.22% 14.43%

Clientele: Caters mainly to OEMs like

BMW Motorrad, Germany,

Kubota Corporation (Japan, Thailand & USA),

I.T. Switzerland (SAME Group Company) ,

KTM AG (Austria),

Schneider Electric (Germany),

Dana (Italy & China)

Piaggio – Italy, Vietnam

BRP Rotax – Austria

In the domestic market - Yamaha India, Piaggio Vehicles, SML Isuzu , TVS Motors

Management Information and Remuneration:

RGL has a long track record of operations with established market position and reputed client base and long association with these clients.

RGL has more than 3 decades of presence in the automobile component industry. Mr Gursharan Singh, CMD of the company, joined the company as a plant head and has been associated with the company since its inception. He is a mechanical engineer with Post-Graduate Diploma in Export Management.
image

This is the information of the top management of the company . One can see the vast amount of experience each one of them has in the given company.
image
Management remuneration is very high

Exports as a percentage of sales is 58 % in FY 19 . The same was 17 % in FY 09 . Exports have steadily increased over the year as a percentage of revenue.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
sales 58.42 65.15 82.7 98.72 95.05 102.95 107.5 117.74 123.61 138.79 189.95
exports 7.55 11.17 13.27 18.93 29.46 46.29 49.89 58.99 55.85 71.81 109.87
% exports 13% 17% 16% 19% 31% 45% 46% 50% 45% 51% 58%

Working capital management

The business is very working capital intensive .

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
DSO 43 40 40 46 68 55 58 27 32 107 98
DIH 60 66 71 65 79 75 86 82 79 87 69
DOP 0 0 0 46 54 81 72 44 46 55 41
CC 103 106 110 64 93 49 71 65 64 139 126

Although the working capital cycle was showing signs of improvement it has fallen back in the last 2 years to worse than previous levels. There are signs of competitive intensity in the business increasing , also shows better bargaining power of customers.

Ratio Analysis

Year RoCE RoE Sales growth PE PH Div Payout
2014 3 8 8% 5 55.98 -
2015 6 12 4% 6 51.07 -
2016 6 11 10% 8 51.1 -
2017 18 11 5% 8 51.07 -
2018 17 14 13% 8 48.47 -
2019 21 15 37% 6 51.12 -

The return ratios of the company have steadily improved over the years . that has been due to steadily improving operating margins. Valuation wise the market has not really given the company any value more than a single digit P/E . With improving ratios, and improving scale of the company there is a possibility of the company getting re rated by the market.

In smaller companies the client profile is of extreme importance . The clients of the company are some of the finest in the auto industry. The company is adding clients to its existing profile. For example TVS was added last year by the company( in FY 19). The company has a long standing relationship with some of the clients.

The company has much superior margins than the industry average. Having a 16 % OPM is not easy in this industry. For example Bharat Gears a competitior of the company has 8-10 % OPM.

The company has been growing at a pretty fast rate , much greater than the end industry it is servicing. These are signs of improving market share. The company maybe targeting to service the new launches by its clients , which may lead to much faster growth rate than the end industry.

Company is gearing up for providing drive train solutions to the EVs also. It has already invested substantial capital expenditure in the recent past and is ready to cater to high precision drive train components for E-mobility solutions.

Also the company will not be much affected by the EV disruption coming in the future. Autmotive gears and axles the main product of the company is pretty much used in the EV vehicles as well. The company has 66 % of its revenues from tractors and 2 wheelers. These segments will be the last to face the EV disruption.
The other division which contribute are- 3 wheelers( 14 % of sales) , recreational vehicles (13% of sales), CV - 5 % of sales.
It is good to see a diversified end user industry of the company’s products.

RISKS

  1. The business of the company is working capital intensive. The cash conversion cycle is over a 100 days. Also there is great competitive intensity among the suppliers to the auto industry. The clients also enjoy a good bargaining power in this industry leading to strecthed working capital cycles.

  2. The auto industry is cyclical in nature. The slowdown in the auto sector globally can dampen the growth at which company is growing.

Disc- Not Invested , Tracking

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Banswara Syntex - Deleveraging, Changing Product Mix, Proxy to Fast Fashion

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@crazymama wrote:

Banswara Syntex dates back to 1976 , when Mr. R.L.Toshniwal laid the foundation for the company and set up a spinning mill in the rural Bamboo forest town of Banswara, Rajasthan. Since then, it has grown to become a vertically integrated textile company , specializing in the production of yarn, fabric and readymade garments. It is one of the largest single-mill set ups of fibre-dyed yarn in ASIA. Over the years, they have forayed into markets in over 60 countries including the U.S., U.K., Canada, Spain, Germany, Japan, France, UAE, and Turkey. It has won several awards over the years, including the SRTEPC award for 8 years in a row.
They have diversified offerings in textiles and technical fabrics. Due to our varied and highly specialized product range, we are able to service a number of highly reputed fast fashion brands like Uniqlo, Zara, GAP, Marks and Spencer, Next , etc.
It has its own thermal power plant , which generates 33 MW of captive power for the mill. For our next step, we intend to move to solar energy.

Corporate Video of the company (Created 8 years ago):

TL:DR version

Investment Rationale:

Closer to a cyclical bottom than to a top given the multiple headwinds over the last 3 years - demonetization, GST, Turkish lira devaluation.

Deleveraging and Committed to repayment of around INR 60 crores every year.


*Net Debt includes Current Maturity of Debt

Changing Product Mix

Product%20Mix%20-%20Changing%20from%20Low%20Margin%20Yarn%20to%20Value-added%20Fabrics_Garments

Seems to be pretty undervalued

Undervalued across multiple parameters - Mcap/Sales (captured below), EV/EBITDA @ 5 and Mcap/FCF < 1 (Mcap = 125 cr and FCF of FY19 = 128 cr)

Detailed Version:

Durability - Can we have a fair expectation of their products still being used 5-10 years from now?

Fast Fashion: Procurement from local suppliers for Zara, H&M, M&S. Currently the local procurement is negligible

image

Key Trends:

  • Unlike traditional fashion seasons which have 3-4 turns, fast fashion have higher turns of 8-12 where there is a completely different store display every 4-8 weeks.
  • Shorter lead times which require lower inventory levels and faster inventory turns.
  • Very efficient supply chain logistics with “just in time” delivery
Peer Comparison - How does Banswara Syntex compare with its peers?

Banswara Syntex is among the three largest polyester viscose dyed yarn (PV yarn) manufacturers in India with Sutlej Textiles and Industries Ltd. and Sangam (India) Ltd. as key competitors.

Banswara Syntex produces 3 times more PV Lycra fabric compared to the nearest competitors.

Like Sutlej, Banswara too is certified by INVISTA for usage of Lycra.

Sangam is a supplier of some of the yarns to Banswara Syntex.

Banswara Sangam Sutlej
Employees 14245 9000+ 14736
Spindles 158632 238608 276406
Fabric Weaving (mmpa) 36 30 -
Fabric Processing (mmpa) 60 72 9.6
Garments (mn pcs) 4.91 3.6 -
Sales - FY19 1350 1874 2642
EBITDA - FY19 120 168 240
Contribution
PV Yarn 39.78% 44% 95%*
PV Fabric 36.81% 19% -
Garments 20.89% 2% -
Exports 43% 26% 34%

*Sutlej Yarn figure includes the cotton melange yarn contribution as well

Business Quality

Exports share in revenues has gradually declined to 45% levels having stayed consistently above 60% in FY01-FY11.
A good indicator of increasing competitiveness globally and the regulatory headwinds since FY11 with various policy changes.

Significant portion of Fabrics/Garments are exported.

Given the fact that their cost of debt is between 9-12% for their various loans, the RoCE does not look good. However they have scope to improve it to 13-15% levels.

Improvement in RoCE is another trigger for re-rating.

Debtor Days are consistent in a range.
Inventory Turns are improving and as indicated by the management increasing contribution from fast fashion customers should translate to higher turns.

Decrease in Worker counts in Banswara which corroborates with the efficiency and automation improvements being undertaken.
Increase in Worker counts in Surat/Daman as Garment (being labour intensive) contribution increases.
It also explains the recent increase in employee wages on average.

Management Quality

Promoter’s Salary rises and falls in line with changes in PAT.

chart

Also, overall Salaries has increased at a CAGR of 20% v/s 14% increase in promoter group salary.

As mentioned during the concalls they do seem to spend on product development and cost innovation through their R&D spends and Design Studio setup in Mumbai/Paris.
Although R&D spend as % of Sales is less than 0.1%

Also the capex figures mentioned in the Director’s Report are roughly in line with the figures mentioned in the Cash flow statements.

About the Founder who passed away this year in Feb.

Born on 22, November, 1933, Mr R L Toshniwal is graduated in Textile Technology from VJTI Bombay, in 1954. He has done his Masters in Textiles from Leeds University, UK, in 1957. Before setting up his own business- the Banswara Group, Mr Toshniwal has worked as Chief Executive and as the Director for OCM India Ltd for five years. He has also been Chief Executive for Aditya Mills Ltd for nine years. His professional profile includes sound experience as a Production Manager in Birla Cotton Mills Ltd and in Sutlej Cotton Mills Ltd, where he was responsible for setting up projects at Bhawanimandi & Kathua. For six years, Mr Toshniwal has successfully chaired The Synthetic & Rayon Textile Export Promotion Council (SRTEPC). He has been President of Rajasthan Textile Mills Association. He has also held the post of President in Indian Spinners Association (ISA) for ten years. He is the Committee Member of Federation of Indian Export Organization (FIEO), and for Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) which was formerly known as Indian Cotton Mills Federation (ICMF).

As captured above he was a technocrat as is the case with the 2nd generation - current MD and elder son who graduated B. Tech. (Chem.) from IIT, Mumbai and a OPM from Harvard University.

Younger son: Shaleen has been brought up in Mumbai and has studied at GD Somani School in South Mumbai. He did his junior college from HR College and completed his Bachelors in Management from Bentley College in greater Boston area in the US.

They seem to be close-knit and without issues going by the 2011 interview.

Valuation

Considering the below 3 factors, there is a potential of re-rating if the mgmt delivers on changing the product mix:

  • Even if there is no further growth (Additional revenue growth is a bonus)
  • Deleveraging of long term loans leading to reduction of interest outgo.
  • Higher contribution from Fabrics/Garments leading to increase in EBITDA margins to 16% which is the target of the mgmt. This should translate to increase in RoCE.
  • Increasing contribution from Japan through Takisada marketing tieup, Europe through Riopele tieup.

Risks:

  1. Dependence on Crude Prices since PSF and VSF constitute key RM.
  2. Lengthening of lead times can affect customer relationships especially the Fast Fashion clients like ZARA.
  3. Regulatory risk. Need to see how the replacement of MEIS with RoDTEP will affect the export incentives.
  4. Labour risk especially with the Yarn & Fabric plant in Banswara. Faced some issues during demonetization with absenteeism and overtime pay. Could aggravate if efficiency improvement continues.
  5. Diversification into Direct Retail venture which mgmt has indicated that they are not prepared to venture at least for next 2-3 years.
  6. Foray into a new capex phase with additional debt for setting up fabric/garment mills in overseas locations such as Ethiopia.
  7. Further decline of revenues which were stagnating between FY14 to FY18 along with declining margins.
  8. Forex risk. Turkish lira devaluation affected some of the sales to European customers who were getting a cheaper product with same quality from Turkey.
Sources

Concall Transcripts, Annual Reports
https://www.fibre2fashion.com/interviews/face2face/banswara-syntex/rl-toshniwal/1145-1/
https://www.fibre2fashion.com/interviews/face2face/banswara-syntex-ltd/ravi-toshniwal-banswara-syntex-ltd/897-1/
https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/printstory.aspx?news_Id=103901
https://www.birlacellulose.com/pdfs/media/Viscose_Naturally.pdf
https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/2115505/events-insights/R-Vue-Report.pdf
https://www.fastretailing.com/eng/ir/direction/position.html#pagetop

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yY_cRGsa_s0
https://soundcloud.com/user-84338075/dhruv-toshniwal

Disclosure: Invested >10% of Portfolio over last 2 months. Not a SEBI Registered Analyst. Not a Buy/Sell/Hold Recommendation. Please do your own due diligence.

Post is still work in Progress. Got created by mistake while still editing.!

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Bajaj Auto - Is the company back on growth track?

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@lingalarahul7 wrote:

Introduction:

Bajaj Auto is an automobile manufacture which most of us have heard since decades. The company is into manufacturing motorcycles. Listing down the company’s brands segment-by-segment.

  1. Entry: CT100, Platina
  2. Commuter: Discover, V
  3. Sports: Pulsar, Avenger
  4. Super-Sports: Pulsar, KTM, Dominar

What’s interesting in recent times?

The company seems very concerned about its current market share of motorcycles and wants to call itself a major automobile manufacturer aiming for market share of about 25%. The revenue growth was spectacular in FY19 with Bajaj’s market share improving by about 3% to 18.7%. Going by number of units, domestic sales increased by 29% and exports increased by 25% in FY19. This is the first time ever where their total sales hit 5 million units and international sales hit 2 million units.

Though they have seen reasonable growth in the Sports segment too, most of growth has come in the entry segment. Hence, the actual Revenue from Operations growth is lower than pure volume growth at 18.3% and PAT growth is at 16.7%.

Apart from that, promoters are buying shares in the market on regular intervals through Bajaj Holdings. Their shareholding increased from 49.3% in FY18 to 51.18% in FY19. Some KMPs of the company also bought some shares through market in FY20. Hopefully, there is some increased optimism within the company.

One can also appreciate that the stock price of the company held still while other Auto companies have seen rampant correction in their stock prices.

Market / Company Data:

Look at the segments data and Bajaj’s performance in those segments below.

Segment Market Share of Segment Market Share of Bajaj in Segment (FY19) Market Share of Bajaj in Segment (FY18)
Entry 26% 35.40% 29%
Mid-segment 51% Poor Poor
Sports 16% 44.10% 39.00%
Super-sports 7% 7.50% DNA
2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
Bajaj Motorcycle sales 4236873 3369334 3219932 3358252 3292084 3422403 3757105
KTM India Sales 50705 46321 34970 30362 22627 11050 7399
Production capacity (in lakhs)
2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Waluj 24 24 24 24 24
Chakan 12 12 12 12 12
Pantnagar 18 18 18 18 18
Total two wheelers 54 54 54 54 54
Waluj 9.3 8.4 6.6 6.6 6.6
Total CVs 9.3 8.4 6.6 6.6 6.6

Production of 3W is fungible with production of Qute. Management plans to expand CV capacity to 1 million this year.

Entry Segment:

CT100 is 36% of domestic volumes for Bajaj and is sold at negative margins. The aim is to convert these sales to Platina which has single digit margins. The company slashed the price of CT100 aggressively in order to attain market share. KMP is justifying this pricing game saying that it is just 14% of the turnover.

Platina 110 is at the higher end of entry segment. The price of CT100 was actually slashed at around Q1FY19 and by the end of Q4FY19, the company managed to achieve higher growth in Platina and also slightly increased the price of CT100, but still at negative margins. One needs to validate if this kind of growth is sustainable for longer period of time.

Default risk of loans taken for entry segment bikes are higher.
Though we sell at poor margins in this category, our Exports, Sports & 3W categories give us 20% margins.

Commuter Segment:

As one can see from above tables, the company’s performance is poor in the commuter segment which is about 50% of the motorcycles market. Respected Chairman, Rahul Bajaj, has said that they will fight like never before in this segment to gain market share.

The Discover model has been performing poorly in this segment. The Company has launched 125cc model Pulsar to tackle this segment later. We can expect the company to launch more models in this segment.

In one of Conf Calls, KMP has mentioned that the commuter Segment market share has been decreasing over time. He says the customers are increasingly wanting to own Sports / Performance motorcycles. And the Entry-level motorcycles will continue to see the growth as cycle owners in the country want to upgrade to riding bikes. FYI, commuter segment contracted by 12% in volumes FY19.

Sports / Performance Segment:

Pulsar is a very strong brand for the company in this segment. Bajaj commands 44.1% market share among all Sports motorcycles sold in the country. They have recently launched Neon version in Pulsar brand and they are receiving good traction driven by their aesthetic appeal.

However, Pulsar Neon is priced cheaper compared to other Pulsar bikes of the same horsepower and analysts expressed their concern of whether there is some down-trading which is happening. KMP is justifying the move saying that they are targeting lower purchasing power customers using the Neon models. Another justification is that they will see up-trading from 125cc players due to this move. I think this was the growth driver for the company in Sports segment, but one needs to assess if this can continue for a longer period of time.

Avenger brand is more or less stagnant at volumes of 8000 / month. KMP doesn’t look hopeful on increasing the volumes of this brand. They have done some re-modelling and re-launching but doubt if it will do much for the company, especially when competing with brands at the likes of Royal Enfield. So one shouldn’t expect much from this brand.

Super-Sports Segment:

The Company’s products like Pulsar RS200 and Dominar 400 have gained decent traction. KTM has won special attention among urban consumers.

Bajaj Auto doesn’t directly own the KTM brand but through a subsidiary. It has invested a total of 1219 crores and holds approximately 48% stake in KTM AG of Austria (not just Indian subsidiary). KTM is the fastest growing motorcycle in the world. KTM sells about 212,000 bikes across the globe, with India being the largest market at about 50,000 bikes per year. About 100,000 KTM bikes are manufactured in Bajaj’s Chakan plant. They recently launched Duke 125cc bike and say that it has beaten all of their expectations.

The company is going to partner with Triumph to build and market products of ~350cc products. 350cc is above the horsepower of a typical product from Bajaj and is below the horsepower of a typical product from Triumph.

Exports:

Africa = 50%
South Asia to Middle East = 20%
Latin America = 15%
ASEAN = 15%

As one can see, Africa is the geography which is driving exports for Bajaj. Management expects further growth in exports through Africa. The brand which is very successful here is Boxer. African motorcycle market is mainly a Taxi market and Boxer seems to be doing well here. Other competitors in Africa are mainly Chinese and Japanese.

The company has excellent market share in lots of African countries. For example, it has 68% market share in largest African motorcycle market, Nigeria. Having said that, Africa is not just a Nigeria story. We have 95% share in Uganda, 42% share in Crimea, 60-65% share in Ethiopia. All these markets put together are as big as Nigeria.

One part of Africa which is not very explored is Francophone part of West Africa (West of Nigeria). There was an issue of trademark in these countries. The company got it resolved 18 months ago but in the meantime competition entrenched a lot here. So can take some time to get growth from here.

Speaking of Latin America and ASEAN, most of the exports here are Pulsars. These markets are now fairly penetrated. Further, worth noting that over 85% of the company’s sales come from 21 countries where Bajaj Auto is either No. 1 or No. 2.

Three-Wheelers:

Bajaj commands extra-ordinary market share in 3W market. They are already super strong in the passenger market. Have recently launched product in Goods Carrier market and it has been seeing tremendous growth. Look at below table for numbers.

Bajaj is also strong in 3W exports as can be see in the numbers. Egypt is a large component of 3W exports. Govt is licensing the three-wheelers in the country and putting a lot of administrative work creating a bottleneck in the industry. However, this is temporary and expected to get resolved by end of 2020. It is good for Bajaj in the long term as the industry gets more organized.

Among 3W Exports,
Africa = 35%
South Asia to Middle East = 50%
Latin America = 10%
ASEAN = 10%

2019 2018 2017 2016
Bajaj three wheeler sales 777603 635852 444462 534995
Bajaj three wheeler market share 61.30% 62.50% 56.70% 56.80%
Passenger carriers (3W) market 1133908 894234 671034 842588
Bajaj passenger carriers sales 745254 612590 431022 533670
Bajaj passenger carriers share 65.70% 68.50% 64.20% 63.30%
Goods carriers (3W) market 134792 122466 112518 99945
Bajaj goods carriers sales 32349 23262 13440 1325
Bajaj goods carriers share 24% 19% 11.90% 1.30%
Bajaj commercial vehicles exports 378777 266215 191236 280000

EVs:

Bajaj is launching EVs through a brand called “Urbanite”. Not much details are available about this right now. They plan to extend this brand to 3W after launching it for 2W.

The Company also plans to setup a separate distribution network for Urbanite instead of re-using the existing distribution network.

Questions / Concerns / Risks:

  1. Over the past few years, when the growth was mainly in Scooters and when motorcycles industry was flat, why didn’t the company consider manufacturing scooters? The company just grew by 25% in a period fo five years, from FY13 to FY18.
  2. RE60 which was hyped so well, just seems to be a dumb product. Poor sales and looks like a poor product as well. Though I tried reading about it, I didn’t understand what market they were trying to address. Maybe we can give it an excuse that it is still new to the market
  3. Is company really expanding its customer base by introducing cheaper categories in Pulsar or diluting its brand in the process? Again, one needs to question if this is a sustainable way to keep growing for the company?
  4. Slashing prices of CT100 aggressively for the market share. One should justify if this is really worth it as CT100 sells at negative margins? One should track if the company can convert these to Platina 110 and if they convert so, will growth falter again for the company?
  5. Though this can vary from person to person, I didn’t like the KMP’s answers during the Conf Call. I felt there is a lot of beating around the bush.
  6. One needs to observe how the company will act when the EV evolution starts to get some kickers / tailwinds.

Financials / Valuation:

You can get the detailed numbers from Screener. Putting down some numbers for starters.
ROCE => 30%+
ROE => 20%+
EBITDA Margins => ~20%
PAT Margins => ~15%
Zero debt + Loads of liquid balance sheet at around 18000 crores of financial investments => They accumulated a lot of cash since no growth over past few years and no capex was needed
Revenue at 31800 crores and PAT at 4900 crores in FY19.

Company is trading at Market Cap of 85000 crores with a P/E of 17-18. Hero, which is competitor, is also trading at a similar P/E of 17-18

Disclosure:

No holdings. Learning about the automotive industry. Please do your own due diligence. All the above content is public information and doesn’t belong to any private entity. Above post is not to be interpreted as a buy / sell recommendation.

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GeeCee Ventures - Cigar butt?

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@django wrote:

GeeCee Ventures Limited (Formerly Gwalior Chemical Industries Limited) is into Real estate Development, NBFC operations and security trading.

[In August 2009, as a part of diversification strategy adopted by the Company, it sold its main manufacturing unit at Nagda, Madhya Pradesh to Lanxess (India) Pvt Limited, a subsidiary of German multinational Lanxess AG. Post the transfer of the Chemical Business the name of the Company name has been changed to GeeCee Ventures Limited]

Company operates in following segments:

Historical financials are as below:

Investment rationale as as below:

Other sanity checks:
image

Views & criticism invited!

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Moldtek Technologies

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@aruncph wrote:

Moldtek Technologies

Moldtek Technologies is a Engineering services firm, from the stable of Moldtek group.
Moldtek Technologies has 2 verticals Engineering & IT. Engineering is further subdivided into Civil & Mechanical divisions.

image

image
Company growth & profitability picking up in last 4-6 quarters and management commentary has been bullish.

IT Division :

IT division is quite small and company doesn’t expect to grow much in this space for time being. They are only servicing their current customers.

Civil-Structural engineering

Services :
Design-Detailing steel conventional & complex structures, construction and consultancy.

Most of their work is for US based clients and of late they have been winning work from US tier 1 companies. They had acquired 2 US steel detailing firms RMM Global & Crossroads detailing in past. They provide consultancy and help in acquiring new projects. Most of the work happens in Indian offices interms of designs, detailing.

Company has started executing projects (sub contracts) in big ticket projects recently like Denver Airport extension work, Amadzon CVG Hub at Kentucky, 75 storied Oceanwide center. Management expect steady growth in this vertical.

As per Annual report 2018/19 - “The Workflow in Structural Steel Division is moderate in the
first few months of the next FY 2019-20. However the Company is adding more new clients to increase the overall sales.”

MES - Mechanical Engineering Services

Services :

For OEMs, Process design for various BIW assemblies & sub-assemblies, designing, detailing, manufacturing of BIW Welding Fixtures; Robotic Simulation for Welding Robots & Guns for BIW , Design of grippers, weld gun arms and air-circuit design etc…

They have setup a GmbH in Frankfurt recently.

Management guidance for this vertical been bullish - They believe the MES division can ‘more than double the revenue in FY19-20’ and will be ‘Star Performer’.

Management :

Same management as that of Moldtek packaging and have a proven track record in good capital allocation.

Financials :

Market Cap - 150 Cr
CMP : 56
ROCE : 35%
ROE : 26%
PE : 12%
Dividend Paying, zero debt. Debtor days improving over the last 3 years.

Revenue 5Year CAGR % - 17%
Revenue 3Year CAGR % - 19%

PAT 5Year CAGR % - 41%
PAT 3Year CAGR % - 38%

Given the growth, performance & management quality, its rather surprising that this stock doesn’t have any institutional investors.

Opinion - If it continues to maintain this ROE & ROCE, its just a matter of time.

References :
Annual report (2018/19) - http://moldtekengineering.com/pdf/Annual%20Report-MTTL-2019.pdf

FY20 Q1 result & mgmt commentary - http://moldtekengineering.com/pdf/Q1_results_mttl_2019-20.PDF

Disc : Invested

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S Chand - A possible rerating compounder

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@milan_j_shah wrote:

Hi all
We have all heard the phrase rags to riches - but S Chand is a riches to rags story. After having debuted on the Exchanges at 670 after its IPO in 2017 it is now languishing at 60Rs. Marquee names like HDFC, Everstone and IFC are invested.
The reason I bring in this disaster story is that sometimes a stock can rise like the phoenix.
The basic problem with this stock was that it compounded profits at north of 25% for last 5 years ending Mar 2018. However, it reported a loss in 2019 which is the reason for its dismal state today. How did this happen?
Well their receivables were too high. The company made classic case of buying growth ignoring the quality of growth. They have blamed the loss in 2019 on returns from sales channels due to the upcoming new education policy. That may have played a small part but I think a big part was the high receivables.
Howard Marks said that every company is a good investment at the right price - this is my main point here. The company has cut down on expenses, expects a modest increase in sales so would result in at least break even in Mar 2020 with a possible upside next year due to release of New Education Policy. Opinions invited…

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