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JK Tyres - Can it turnaround?

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@achalarora wrote:

Not able to find a thread on this company hence starting a new one, please find below the analysis done till now. Members please share your views:

JK Tyre: CMP ~125

· Leader in TBR tyres, most of revenue comes from there

o Biggest beneficiary of ADD on Chinese tyres (TBR segment was worst affected)

o CV demand picking up: biggest beneficiary

o Improvement in both volumes and realizations

· Natural rubber prices have come down recently => improving gross margins

· Huge operating leverage: Cap. utilization (post CIL acquisition) < 50%

· Plus very high financial leverage as well

o Strong cashflows expected. Risks not very high. Cost of debt is low => makes sense

o Expected deleveraging over next 2-3 years

· Reasonably strong pedigree

· History of strong turnaround in acquired cos (Vikrant, Tornel)

· Mexico (~15% contribution) showing positive trend – expected to continue

· High promoter shareholding – bought from market in September @ ~150

· Grew faster than industry in recent quarter

Few more points:

consistent dividend payer
announced 75% dividend payout for a INR 2 face value share
suffered loss in first quarter majorly due to China Dumping, have recovered from it and posted good profit in Q4, 100% YoY increase in PAT on consolidated basis. But due to first quarter performance FY18 PAT has been quite low as compared to FY’17 PAT - almost 85% drop in PAT
Factors affecting the company performance:
China Dumping - currently protected due to ADD measures
Oil prices: IMO reason of further fall in the stock price (might post weak results for Q1’FY19 due to this)
Demand of commercial vehicles - uptick in economy
Logistics sector coming out of GST, e-Way bill complexities should help in creating the demand for JK tyyres
Comment from Mgmt:
"Truck/Bus radialisation which JK Tyrc had pionccrcd,
further accelerated to 47% during the year and is expected to cross 50% in the
coming year. J K Tyre maintained its leadership in this growing segment. ln a short
span after acquisition by JK Tyre, an expansion of its Truck/Bus radial capacity has
been undertaken at Cavendish, which will further strengthen our market presence.
The capacities acquired through Cavendish has helped JK Tyre to gain markct
penetration apart from increasing its presence in the fast growing 2/3 wheeler
segment
Last 5 year ROE : 25%+
Last 5 Year Profit Growth: -ve due to the FY’18 Q1 performance
Some pointers from the results sheet for FY’18 (https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/1663ce99-6963-4417-8a5a-7cf2d8577250.pdf)

Company is among top 25 in world in tyre industry

JK Tyre is the only tyre manufacturer in lndia to be included in the list of Superbrand in 2017, the sixth time the honour has been conferred upon the company

JK Tyre has global presence in 100 countries across six continents, backed by production
support from 12 plants - 9 in lndia and 3 in Mexico

Currently, the capacity across all its plants is about 32 million tyres per annum. ln April 2016 JK Tyre acquired Cavendish lndia Limited from Birla Tyres. While acquisition added three modern plants to its portfolio taking the total count to 12, it helped the tyre major foray into the two/three wheeler segment as well.

Pioneers of radial technology, JK Tyre produced the first radial tyre in 1977 and is currently the
market leader in Truck Bus Radial segment. With over three decades of technological
innovation, JK Tyre offers tyre for entire range of passenger and commercial vehicles, starting
from a 3 kg two-wheeler tyre to a 3.5 ton OTR tyre.

JK Tyre & lndustries Ltd has a strong network of 4000 dealers and over 250 dedicated outlets
branded as Steel-Wheels & has over 30 Truck Wheels providing complete solutions to Truck
Tyre customers.

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Trend analysis of various sectors

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@jagira wrote:

Howdy!

Here’s my first thread on this forum. I have been a long time visitor to this forum but never started a topic.

I am an engineer who got interested in investing partly inspired by my father and partly by my uncle (@hitesh2710). I am still learning the art of reading financial statements and assigning a value to a company. Being an engineer, I am also interested in quantitative aspects of technical analysis.

I was analysing various sectors which have companies either in medium term uptrend or medium term downtrend and have computed a list of sectors with companies in momentum on either side.

Following is the sector-trend data. I have computed trends based on medium term horizon. Data is for top 1000 companies by market cap listed on NSE.

Sector Total Companies Companies in Uptrend Companies in Downtrend
Seeds 1 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
FMCG - Household Products 2 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Employment Services 2 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
FMCG - Personal Products 8 total companies 4 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Footwear 5 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Oil & Gas - Refining & Marketing 6 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Online Services 3 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Restaurants & Cafes 3 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Communication & Networking 3 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Pharmaceuticals 50 total companies 14 companies in uptrend 13 companies in downtrend
Private Banks 18 total companies 5 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Retail - Department Stores 4 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Four Wheelers 4 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Two Wheelers 4 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Stationery 4 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
FMCG - Foods 12 total companies 3 companies in uptrend 8 companies in downtrend
Home Financing 9 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Equity 5 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Telecom Equipments 5 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Asset Management 11 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 5 companies in downtrend
IT Services & Consulting 28 total companies 5 companies in uptrend 12 companies in downtrend
Alcoholic Beverages 6 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Software Services 12 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Logistics 19 total companies 3 companies in uptrend 12 companies in downtrend
Textiles 24 total companies 3 companies in uptrend 12 companies in downtrend
Diversified Chemicals 9 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Insurance 9 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Hospitals & Diagnostic Centres 9 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 5 companies in downtrend
Investment Banking & Brokerage 9 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 5 companies in downtrend
Apparel & Accessories 18 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 9 companies in downtrend
Consumer Finance 20 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Building Products - Pipes 10 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 7 companies in downtrend
Iron & Steel 31 total companies 3 companies in uptrend 19 companies in downtrend
Diversified Financials 13 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 5 companies in downtrend
Fertilizers & Agro Chemicals 26 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 12 companies in downtrend
Specialty Chemicals 28 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 14 companies in downtrend
Industrial Machinery 29 total companies 2 companies in uptrend 12 companies in downtrend
Auto Parts 54 total companies 3 companies in uptrend 32 companies in downtrend
Public Banks 21 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 6 companies in downtrend
Commodity Chemicals 26 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 15 companies in downtrend
Real Estate 37 total companies 1 companies in uptrend 27 companies in downtrend
Business Support Services 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Mining - Copper 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Animation 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Metals - Diversified 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Wellness Services 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Metals - Lead 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Mining - Coal 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Soft Drinks 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Commodities Trading 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 0 companies in downtrend
Technology Hardware 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
FMCG - Tobacco 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Paints 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Trucks & Buses 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
TV Channels & Broadcasters 5 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Airlines 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Mining - Iron Ore 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Aerospace & Defense Equipments 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Labs & Life Sciences Services 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Tea & Coffee 5 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Stock Exchanges & Ratings 6 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Tractors 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Cables 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Retail - Online 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Health Care Equipment & Supplies 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Airports 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Heavy Machinery 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Education Services 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Dredging 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Building Products - Granite 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Three Wheelers 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Oil & Gas - Equipment & Services 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Building Products - Prefab Structures 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Metals - Coke 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Home Furnishing 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Metals - Coal 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Theme Parks & Gaming 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Theatres 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Wood Products 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Mining - Manganese 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Cycles 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Renewable Energy Equipment & Services 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Radio 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Housewares 1 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 1 companies in downtrend
Batteries 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Power Transmission & Distribution 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Outsourced services 5 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Power Trading & Consultancy 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Power Infrastructure 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Ports 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Biotechnology 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Agricultural & Farm Machinery 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Telecom Infrastructure 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Gas Distribution 5 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Metals - Aluminium 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Building Products - Laminates 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Tour & Travel Services 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Water Management 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Oil & Gas - Exploration & Production 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Metal - Diversified 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Cable & D2H 6 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Shipbuilding 2 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 2 companies in downtrend
Conglomerates 6 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Movies & TV Serials 6 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Mining - Diversified 3 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Electrical Components & Equipments 8 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Telecom Services 6 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Roads 5 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Electronic Equipments 6 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Agro Products 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Oil & Gas - Storage & Transportation 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Retail - Apparel 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Tires & Rubber 7 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 3 companies in downtrend
Specialized Finance 7 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Renewable Energy 5 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Precious Metals Jewellery & Watches 7 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Rail 4 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Building Products - Ceramics 5 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Sugar 8 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Publishing 7 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Hotels Resorts & Cruise Lines 11 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 4 companies in downtrend
Plastic Products 6 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 5 companies in downtrend
Gold 5 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 5 companies in downtrend
Packaged Foods & Meats 11 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 6 companies in downtrend
Power Generation 8 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 6 companies in downtrend
Packaging 8 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 7 companies in downtrend
Heavy Electrical Equipments 11 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 8 companies in downtrend
Paper Products 10 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 8 companies in downtrend
Home Electronics & Appliances 14 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 9 companies in downtrend
Cement 28 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 25 companies in downtrend
Construction & Engineering 41 total companies 0 companies in uptrend 29 companies in downtrend

Some of my observations:

  • IT, Pharma, Private Banks and FMCG (personal products) sectors have maximum companies in uptrend.
  • Packaging, Heavy Electrical Equipments, Paper Products, Home Electronics & Appliances, Cement, Construction & Engineering have maximum companies in downtrend.

I hope this information is useful in either picking a sector to invest or avoid, or in analysing a sector to find value.

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GayatrI Projects

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@DoVai wrote:

Gayatri projects CMP (158) - Mkt cap 2954 crores
One of the oldest players in Infra- core areas of expertise- roads, irrigation, industrials
have won early completion bonuses across few projects

FY18 revenues - 2912 crs- Growth of 38%
FY18 Profit - 188 Cr- against guidance of 150 crs- Growth of more than ore than 150% driven by margin expansion- management had guided for 15% EBITDA margins and achieved 16.1% for the year.

FY18 Net debt/ equity - 1.52x
FY18 working capital cycle - 49 Days - This is very good
FY18 ROE-16.7%

Promoter Background: TV Sandeep Kumar reddy- Promoter and MD did his masters in Construction Engineering from University of Michigan and bachelors in Civil Engineering from Purdue University . Founder promoters- Sandeeps Father- has linkages with Congress but he is retired now.

FY19 Management guidance
Current orderbook is 13,200 Crs- significant chunk is NHAi orders- FY19 new order intake is already 6000 crs

Revenue growth of 30%- INR 3800 crs
profit growth of 50% - implied PAT guidance INR 285 crs
EBITDA margins will exceed 16%
ROEs will exceed 25%

  • owns ~4% in sembcorp India which is going public at 14000 -16000 crs ( estimated valuations)- could be worth 400-500 crs optional value .

Gayatri projects also went through a ratings upgrade recently .

Stock is available at 10.4x FY19E PE and 15.7x TTM PE Multiple …

** Key question is rerating : if one were to consider range of FY19 PE multiple of 16x FY19 PAT.excluding the optional value from sembcorp the stock can touch 250.**

Sector Comments: not affected significantly from Crude, Rupee - Dollar… Strong tailwinds across the road sector on order inflows…

Appreciate inputs from others

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Matrimony.com Ltd

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@sachin9678 wrote:

Matrimony.com Ltd
Market Cap: 1600 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 730
Current P/E: Around 21against FY18 EPS.
POSITIVE: B2C business, Recession Proof, Under tapped market, Political Risk Proof.
NEGATIVE: No entry barriers, Competition

MCL is currently the market leader in online match making services in India with a market share of north to 60%.

About 1-1.2 crores wedding take place in India annually and only 6% of the population go online to find a match. With changing dynamics the online matrimony option is bound to find a more influential place in our match-making system.

Valuations: The stock is available at 21x its earnings on the P/E front against FY18 and at 4.88 Mcap/Sales. The company has no listed peer except Info-Edge (Naukri.com) which is trading at valuations of 56x to its earnings and at a Mcap/Sales of 15.77. (However Info-edge has various portals across industries from job market (Naukri.com) to 99acres in property it also has a 10% stake in Zomato). Another peer Justdial which has been punished heavily by the markets in last 3-4 years due to deteriorating margins, topping out of growth and google’s venture into locals rendering Justdial with little utility left still trades at a valuation of 27x to its earnings.

Internet businesses in general are rated at far higher valuations, such as INFIBEAM today is trading at a P/E of more than 100 and Mcap/Sales of about 13+.

Astronomical valuation for Internet companies is a global trend.

Credits: for above pointers to The ace investor blog.

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Indostar Capital Finance Limited

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@inxs_22in wrote:

Indostar Capital Finance Limited

image

About the company

Incorporated in 2009, Indostar came up with an IPO in May 2018. Promoted by Indostar Capital (Everstone group), the company started its business with corporate and SME lending. In FY 2018, they ventured into retail lending by adding Home Finance and Vehicle Finance Business. This is how they introduce themselves on their website –

“We are a professionally managed and institutionally owned organization which is primarily engaged in providing structured term financing solutions to corporates and loans to small and medium enterprise “SME” borrowers in India. We recently expanded our portfolio to offer vehicle finance and housing finance products through our wholly-owned subsidiary IndoStar Home Finance Private Limited.”

About Business

Indostar started its business with corporate lending and SME finance. The share of Corporate and retail (SME) lending in FY 2017 was 87.6% and 12.4% respectively. In 2018 they started Vehicle Finance and Housing Finance under the umbrella of retail finance. This resulted in change in their corporate and retail AUM mix which became 73.7% & 26.3% respectively at the end of 2018. Also they hired Ex-MD of Shriram Transport Finance Mr. R. Sridhar to take care of their retail lending business. Mr. R. Sridhar is the executive vice-chairman and CEO of the company. He is associated with the company since April 2017 and building his team.

AUM%20Breakup
Source: Corporate Presentation

Total assets of home loan and vehicle finance as of March 31, 2018 have been around INR 300 Cr. This year, they are targeting a run rate of 100 cr. Per month in VF and around 50 cr. in HF which makes a total of 150 cr per month or 1800 cr of book in FY 19 from these two verticals. Add another 150-200 cr of SME loan in it to arrive at 300-350 cr / month in total retail segment. That makes a book size of 3000+ cr in retail segment for the year 2019. (Source: Company Concall)

Strengths

  • Promoters – Promoted by Indostar Capital which is backed by Everstone group and other global investors.


Source: Corporate Presentation
  • Indostar will possibly become a diversified NBFC with presence in wholesale and retail lending.
  • 100+ Branch network & 1000+ employees -
  • Major Shareholders post IPO – As on 25th May 2018 17.95% shares were held by FIIs, FPI, MFs & Banks. SBI Mutual Fund, Lenarco, BNP Paribas Arbitrage, SBI Life Insurance, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, SBI Amundi Funds, Fidelity Investment Trust, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, HDFC Standard Life Insurance, Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance, Reliance Mutual Fund, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance, Max Life Insurance, Jupiter, Sundaram Mutual Fund & Reliance Nippon Life Insurance. 58.95% is held by promoters and remaining by others.
  • Strong Credit Rating –
    Credit%20Rating
    Source : Corporate Presentation

Business Opportunities

  • Retail loan which comprise of Housing Finance, SME Finance & Vehicle Finance to double from here in next 2-3 years.
  • Vehicle Finance is going to be the growth driver for next couple of years. As mentioned above, they are primarily into used vehicle finance where yields are high and so are the NPAs however higher yields will take care of high NPAs.
  • Focussing on Corporate Lending and vehicle finance business, where yields are high, and targeting it to be around 70-75% of total assets. Both the businesses are expected to have a spread of 600 basis points.
  • Low base advantage – They have recently started VF and HF business and the AUM base is low at present. This is going to result in high growth rate in these verticals in the years to come.
  • Aggressive expansion – In 2018 itself, company opened 100 branches. This aggressive expansion will ensure high growth in loan book in years to come. In short term it may have negative impact on costs and return ratios but gradually cost will come down and with incremental revenue flowing in; their ratios will improve as well.
  • With change in borrowing mix, Cost of borrowing is coming down

    COB
    Source: Corporate Presentation

Indostar, with a Market Cap of around 4800 cr. and sales of Rs. 715.54 Cr (expected to grow from here due to aggressive targets in VF business) look cheap on valuation front. CMP of Rs 510 and Book Value of Rs. 262.75 translate P/B to 1.94 which is cheapest amongst NBFCs. Also with EPS of 29.95, PE comes to 17.02 which again is not too expensive for a growing company.

However there are few risk areas which are as follows -

Key Risks

  • Interest rate volatility – With interest rates rising in India, this could adversely impact their lending and treasury operations thus impacting their net interest income.

  • Execution of new ventures – Not being able to execute newly started ventures could result in adverse impact on NIMs and overall results of the company.

  • Increased in NPA

Company’s Gross NPAs were 890.00 million, or 1.7% of Gross Advances as of December 31, 2017,
as compared to 727.34 million, or 1.4% of Gross Advances as of March 31, 2017 and 100.00 million, or 0.2% of Gross Advances as of March 31, 2016.

Company’s provision for NPAs was 182.86 million as of December 31, 2017, as compared to 107.82 million as of March 31, 2017 and 20.00 million as of March 31, 2016. Company’s Gross NPAs and provisions have increased in recent periods and may continue to increase in future.

  • Exposure to specific sectors – Housing finance (HF)/Real estate are the sectors which are not doing well these days and in used vehicle finance business deviation (NPA) is usually high. For Indostar, HF and SME segments have low yields and have a spread of around 200-250 basis points. These two verticals are going to drag down overall yields for the time being.

  • Dependence on key Person – Hired Mr. R. Sridhar, Ex-MD of Shriram Transport finance to drive its retail foray. He is the key person as of now who is driving the retail lending growth. Over dependence on him is another key risk factor.

  • Competition – Most of the verticals in which company operates in except Used VF business are such where there is high competition mainly from banks, HFCs, MFIs and NBFCs. In Corporate lending business, existing players Edelweiss, L&T and in real estate we have Piramal, PNB Housing & L&T to name few.

  • Regulatory Changes – NBFC business is a regulated business and any change in regulations may adversely impact the company.

  • Macro Factors – Sale of commercial vehicles (CV) is positively co-related to various macro factors like GDP growth and per capita Income etc. Any deterioration in Indian/Global Macro picture can adversely impact of CV sales and business verticals like Home Finance, SME & Corporate Loans as well.

Company details

Registered & Corporate Office: One Indiabulls Center, 20th Floor, Tower 2A, Jupiter Mills Compound, Senapati Bapat Marg, Mumbai - 400013, Maharashtra, India
Telephone : +91(22) 43157000, Facsimile : +91 (22) 43157010
Contact Person : Jitendra Bhati, Company Secretary & and Compliance Officer
E – mail : investor.relations@indostarcapital.com
Website : www.indostarcapital.com

Disclaimer: - I’m not a SEBI registered Investment adviser and this is not an Investment Advice. I have recently taken a tracking position in this company and my views are positively biased. Please consult your investment adviser before Investing.

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Nava Bharat Ventures - Value pick for medium term

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@vskr63 wrote:

Nava Bharat Ventures is an established player in ferro alloys,sugar,power generation and coal mining…Ferro alloys production is based in Telangana & Odissa and has well depreciated assets. The power bussiness is in India and in Zambia . The Zambian power asset became operational last year and has stabilised its operation over the past two quarters.This power plant , a pit head plant wherein the coal from Maamba colleries ( a nava bharat venture through a Singapore subsidiary ) is used. has turned hugely profitable.
In addition over the past few months ferro alloys is doing well and Power is no more a drag. The sugar division though efficient is a drag on the bottomline,
Rupee depreciation and coal price rise are likely to aid reaisation from Zambian operations.

The projections based on FY18 performance and the management concall are impressive and the stock is available at an attractive EV / EBIDTA and a good upside is possible in medium term.

Forum members are requested to do their due dilligence before investing …

Disclosure… invested @ INR 134 with a 2% weight and adding on dips with an aim to double exposure in dips /downturn.

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Laurus Labs - Return Ratios likely to Improve

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@goldenstar wrote:

Laurus Labs Limited (Mcap 5000 Cr)
Promoter buying as visible Operating Leverage to kick in over the Next 2 Years

What I like about Laurus

  • Professional and Knowledge driven Promotor Dr. Satyanarayan Chava who has been buying from the market over the last 2 months.
  • Cost Leader in manufacturing of APIs for anti-retroviral (ARV), Hepatitis C, Oncology (91% of Revenue, expected to come down to 76% in the next three years)
  • Visible Plan and Strategy to reduce dependency from API and move into Finished Dosage Formulation (FDF)
    - Investments of INR 4149 Mn that are currently generating negligible revenue. Expected to contribute 8% to the Top-line in the next three years along with improving Return ratios.
  • Current EBIDTA Margins are ~22% and are expected to improve to ~24-25% in next 3 years due to change in revenue mix
  • Recently completed US and other inspections with Zero Observations, no major inspection expected in the next one year
  • Contribution for FDF Business from US begin in Q4 and is likely to pick up traction from H2 this financial year
  • No Major Borrowing expected

Valuations
FY18 PAT at 1676 Mn, EPS 15.74, PE 30x
With Operating Leverage and FDF Business that is expected to take off, FY21 PAT expected at 3250 Mn, EPS expected at 30.64, Forward PE 16x

Ownership
Promoter and Promoter Group at 30.57%
Blue Water (Warburg Pincus Group) - 11.54%
FIL Capital (Fidelity) - 19.80%
Kotak and SBI MF - 7.78%
Foreign Portfolio Investors - 10.17%

Views Invited.

Disclosure : Holding the stock.

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SJVN Ltd - Hydroelectric power

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@Yogesh_s wrote:

SJVN (Satlaj Jal Vidyut Nigam) Ltd is a PSU in the business of operating hydro electric power plants in HP and neighboring states.

91% of shares are owned by central and HP governments and public float is only 9%.
image

Company has 3 operating hydro plants and several plants are under various stages of development.


Source AR 2017.

Output of power generated has steadily gone up as plants are commissioned.

image

Source AR 2017.

Company is on track to generate more power in FY 18.

Source: 9M results FY 18.

Revenues and profits reported by the company over the years are volatile mainly because of delay in CERC approvals of tariff structure.
imageimage

Source Capitaline

What’s more important is the cash generated from operations. CFO and cash profits are steadily rising.

image
Source Capitaline

This is because company is actually receiving cash for the power that it sells and it is not being used to bail out cash strapped distribution companies.

image
Source Capitaline

In FY 18, debtor days are lowest in 7 years.

Company has about 1000 Cr debt and 2000 cr cash. Company took debt from World Bank for building the dam. Debt is a low interest rate so company is not paying it down. Instead it is using cash to pay dividends and buyback shares helping the central government lower the fiscal deficit.

Company brought back 20.68 Cr shares at 38 Rs / share. It has hiked dividend payout since 2017. For FY 18, in addition to buyback, Rs 1.90 is paid as dividend and another 0.5 Rs is likely to be paid as final dividend. At current price of 26.75, dividend yield works out to be 8%.

Company generates enough cash to pay for projects under construction and pre-construction and still has enough cash to pay for dividends. Since company is 91% owned by governments, it is likely to pay high dividends.

Valuation

I will value this company at 1 times book value. With the recent fall in stock price, it is now trading at book value. A dividend yield of 8% with stable cashflow trading at book value is a good candidate for low growth dividend play.

image
Source Capitaline

Risk Factors

  • FY 17 annual report has several qualifications from auditor regarding misappropriation of funds by management. Amounts are small and qualifications are regarding overcharging by vendors.
  • Debt is denominated in foreign currency so a drop in value of rupee will cause interest payment to go up.
  • There is always possibility of governments asking for free power or delaying payments.
  • There are persistent delays in various approvals for under construction projects.
  • Dividend can be cut if company has to pay for new projects.
  • New projects take long time to break even and company can get stuck with partially built non-revenue generating projects.

Disc: Invested

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Fine Organics Industries Limited. A Niche Player in Speciality Chemical Industry

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@srnarayan wrote:

Incorporated in 2002, Fine Organic Industries Limited is a company engaged in manufacturing of oleochemical-based additives (Oleochemicals are chemicals derived from plant and animal fats. They are analogous to petrochemicals derived from petroleum). The company produces a wide range of specialty plant derived oleochemicals-based additives used in the food, plastic, cosmetics, paint, ink, coatings and other specialty application in various industries sold under the 'Fine Organics’ brand.

FOIL is the largest manufacturer of oleochemicals-based additives in India and a strong player globally in this industry. It has 631 direct customers and 127 distributors from 69 countries. The company has a well-diversified and reputed customer base. In the petrochemical segment, FOIL caters to companies like Reliance Industries Limited, GAIL, Haldia Petrochemicals Limited, SABIC (Saudi Arabia), Petronas (Malaysia), Braskem (Brazil), Petkim (Turkey), Quapco (Qatar), Exxon Mobil, Dow Chemicals, etc. Further, in the foods segment, the company supplies its products to companies like HUL, Mondelez, Coca Cola, Britannia, Parle, etc. No customer accounts for more than 5% of the overall sales.

Specialised products and business model:
Manufacturing additives from base oleochemicals is a highly complex process as it involves technical know-how and R&D for product innovationwhich makes specialty and formulated products difficult to replicate. This provides it with a significant advantage over new entrants, as they would need to invest a great deal of resources to gain a foothold in the markets.

Industry is largely Oligopolistic in nature:
Presence of Multiple entry-barriers such as product formulations, process technology and customer stickiness to established players. All the established players are enjoying their first-mover advantages. For an entry into this industry, new players won’t be able to procure product formulations and process technology from established players, which are reluctant to share their technology and other intellectual properties.

Strong R&D capability with a focus on innovation:
FOIL has created new additives and downstream products, such as Acetem, Datem, and Lactem. It is in the process of developing a downstream product called Citrem, which is a hydrophilic (attracted to water molecules and water-soluble) emulsifier used in the confectionary industry. R&D efforts are driven by customer needs, in terms of meeting specific needs that its direct customers communicate to the company prior to us manufacturing its products. Since 2014, contribution of new products developed through R&D was 0.02%, 0.13%, 0.74% and 1.13% of sales respectively.

Strong Financial Track Record with continued improvement in operating performance:

Rs.Crs FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9MFY18 CAGR
Revenues 496 568 616 658 786 585 9.5%
EBITDA 52 116 118 155 150 116 24.5%
EBITDA margins 10.4% 20.4% 19.1% 23.5% 19.1% 19.8%
EBIT 40 105 95 125 126 101 27.3%
EBIT margins 8.1% 18.5% 15.4% 18.9% 16.0% 17.3%
CFO 49 3 79 113 52 69 13.5%
PAT 21 63 59 77 79 63 31.9%
EPS 7 22 20 25 26 27 38.0%
Rs.Cr FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9MFY18
Net debt 93.5 98.3 92.9 55.4 26.0 9.5
Capital Employed 165.4 248.1 251.9 310.1 314.4 372.9
ROCE 24.4% 42.4% 37.8% 40.2% 40.1% 36.2%

Operating performance reported by the company has been robust driven by the successful commissioning of its new manufacturing lines coupled with healthy demand indicators for its products in the domestic and export markets. Further, debt has reduced consistently over the last few years and a large part of the company’s current debt includes unsecured promoter loans. With efficient supply chain management, FOIL consistently has exhibited a good ROCE level since past many years.

Expansion of production facilities and strategic JV tie-ups to augur next phase of growth:

FOIL currently has three production facilities: one in Ambernath (Maharashtra/ Plant 1); one in Badlapur (Maharashtra); and one in Dombivli (Maharashtra). The company also manufactures some of its products on contract basis through its group companies at its second facility in Ambernath (to be taken over by FY18 end).
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a) FOIL is currently planning to set up an additional production facility in Ambernath (plant 3) with a planned installed capacity of 32,000 tonnes per annum funding through 2.3:1 Debt/Equity mix.
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b) Patalganga and Ambernath Plant 4 – Preliminary Stages of Planning:
i) The Patalganga Facility will have a planned initial installed capacity of 10,000 tonnes per annum for additive products. FOIL has not yet decided on a date of commencement of operation for this facility. The estimated cost of setting up the Patalganga Facility is Rs. 50crs .
ii) In December 2013, FOIL paid Rs.24.2crs for a plot of land on which it plans to build its Fourth Ambernath Facility. This will be capable of manufacturing additives for food, plastic, cosmetics and other specialty additives. (Capacity details currently not decided).

C) Fine Zeelandia Facility:
Fine Zeelandia Private Limited is a 50:50 joint-venture between FOIL and Zeelandia International Holdings B.V.’s, a Dutch company which distributes range of premixes for bakery and confectionary products and pan release agents in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, but does not currently manufacture these products. The Fine Zeelandia Facility will produce premixes for bakery and confectionary products and pan release agents. The Fine Zeelandia Facility’s initial installed production capacity will be 10,000 tonnes per annum the estimated cost of the Fine Zeelandia Facility is Rs.60 crs to be funded in debt-equity ratio of 1.7:1 (FOIL’s equity share being Rs.11.3crs and rest investments by Zeelandia).

D) Fineadd Facility:
FineAdd is JV with Adcotec, to own and operate plant in in Leipzig, Germany. FOIL plans to manufacture specialty food emulsifiers and other food additives at the German Facility to be sold to direct customers and distributors in Europe. FOIL expects the German Facility to commence operation by the third quarter of Fiscal 2020 and it has a planned initial installed capacity of 10,000 tonnes per annum. The financing arrangements for the German Facility have not been finalized yet.

Experienced management team with technical know-how:
FOIL is led by Prakash Damodar Kamat, the co-founder and Chairman, who has more than 4 decades’ experience in the oleochemical-based additives sector. Further academic credentials from UICT Mumbai also give comfort in promoters who are technocrats and have the know-how in the oldeochemicals industry.

Key Risk:

a) Largely fixed nature of contracts (albeit LT in nature) exposing companies to volatility in RM prices
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Primary raw materials are derived from vegetable oils, including rapeseed oil, palm oil, palm kernel oil, sunflower oil, castor oil, soybean oil, rice bran oil. The company enters into ST contract arrangements with its suppliers (<6 months) which exposes it to RM volatility risks. Further, most of the contracts FOIL has with its customers are LT in nature but are albeit fixed in nature (ie. Lumpsum contracts and without any minimum offtake arrangement). They also contain a meet or release’ provision, i.e., a provision pursuant to which a purchaser may terminate the agreement if FOIL does not agree to meet any lower offers that the purchaser receives from other suppliers which could also result in cash flow volatility.

b) Supplier concentration risks:
Heavy reliance on few suppliers which can indicate stringent payment terms and limited bargaining power also prone to risks of steady supply of procurements.

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VALUATIONS:
The company claims to be amongst the few suppliers for its products globally.

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At current multiples of ~ 17x stock is neither expensive nor too cheap. However with growing applications for FOIL products and with new capacities coming on stream in next few years expecting valuations to improve.

Additional references:

Oleochemicals.pdf (155.9 KB) (Source: Broker Reports)

Investor-Presentation-30-Jul-17.pdf (537.5 KB) (Source: Investor Presentation Fairchem Speciality Chemicals)

Views Invited
Disclaimer: Invested. These are purely my investment strategies and not a general recommendation of buy or sell. Please do your research before investing. All company references taken from DRHP.

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KPR mills should I stay invested or exit

Ambuja Cements - Study

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@neopandit wrote:

I could not find a topic dedicated to Ambuja Cements so initiating one. I am new to analyzing financial statements so will need a lot of support to take this forward. Thanks, Regards,

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L&T Finance Holdings - Walking the Talk

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@Investor_No_1 wrote:

L&T Finance Holdings, once wanted to become a bank. It was so focused on that one goal that made it de-focused on the niche NBFC space. It was Jack of all master of none and same was evident from its ROE, growth and other metrics. When RBI made it clear that L&T may never get a chance to become a bank, it was the first to act and swiftest of them. Instead of disappointment and gloom, started focus and bloom. Focus on ROE, growth and specific areas of business -

  1. Rural Finance
  2. Housing
  3. Wholesale

(They even have a growing AMC business which they once wanted to sell but are holding it and it is doing quite well)

A target to achieve 19 ROE by 2020. All this happened around couple of years back. ROE is already doubled since then to around 17 plus. They will surpass 19 and be close to 20 or 20 plus by 2020. NPAs have reduced ever since. Growth in focused business is industry leading. Target is to further reduce contribution of Wholesale in the overall mix and increase retail parts.

Frankly, I track quite a few blue chip and mid caps from good business houses…I have never seen such a dynamic and aggressive management and specially the ones who walk the talk and are so focused on first writing their goals and second achieving them.

History may not be with them but I feel that future may be. In this era of NBFC and shift from PSU to Private, this one stock is not worth ignoring. If in 2 years they can do so much change to themselves, I am sure they can achieve any targets they set for themselves and they must be tracked by serious investors.

At around 2 time P/B, if management keeps walking the talk for next 2-4 years, this may turn out to be a dark horse in NBFC space.

I welcome all seniors and co investors for their comments

Stock Analysis: The share is trading at P/B of less than 2.5, ROE is 17 plus, P/E do not matter to me when I analyze a financial company (I may be wrong). 64% is promoter shareholding. Significant individual public Investor is Harsh Mariwala Family. Growth for last 1 year has been 30% plus QoQ in Profits. Loan book is growing 30% plus as well. NPA is very healthy and improving with good risk management.

  1. Wholsesale: This business includes Corporate loans. This is mostly legacy but not defocused. Management target is to reduce it in the overall mix but still focus on this business
  2. Housing: Relatively new entrant. Loan growth is more from developer loans than retail at the moment. But same is even for some darlings like PNB Housing. They have edge on understanding the developer by virtue of their parent who have either been their contractors in some form or other or supplier. Decades of experience of parent in EPC space provides an edge and risk management in terms of to whom they give money and how much.
  3. Rural Finance: Highest growth area for the company since last couple of years. Better than some microfinance darlings when it comes to risk management/NPAs and growth combination.
  4. AMC business: Although not prime focus at the moment. Initially wanted to sell it but did not get good valuation. It was a boon in disguise I feel as AMC is growing and with time this part of business will fetch better valuations when sold, if sold.

Risks:

  1. It is not a bank, it is NBFC: NBFC by its inherent nature is a very very risky business.
  2. Interest rate fluctuations, Bond Yields etc will impact cost of funds. But same is for every NBFC. It is how well they manage the risk and this year they have been doing well in challenging times of bond yields for NBFCs
  3. Aggression can be a friend and foe. The management is very aggressive. I hope they are intelligent over long term otherwise it may result in back fire in terms of NPAs.
  4. Housing growth is more developer loans. Risk of NPA in future
  5. Wholesale book is still 50% plus. Risk of NPAs in future
  6. Rural Finance/Micro Finance is a very risky business. Government policies is a major risk.
  7. Any new buyouts (as earlier few years back they were targeting Insurance space) valuations,
  8. Not being a bank is in itself a big risk for long term shareholders and so is a feeling of need to be a bank if it crops up to any NBFC management. Same, is true for any NBFC. Look what happened to Capital First’s long term shareholders in its quest to become a bank.
  9. Need of capital by parent L&T? Not sure about this one.

Investment Rationale: All provided above, plus the risks above are opportunities to get it at 2 times P/B. If we believe in the Management ethics, integrity, intelligence and aggression, then these risks are opportunities. At least last 1.5 years they have walked the talk. Whenever they speak, they speak of shareholder value. Never heard a management so directly speaking of increasing shareholder value. (It could be pressure from L&T parent who want to increase their overall mix of profits from services business. So, it could be a gesture by management to please L&T as the highest shareholder). Whatever be the case, as long as they talk good and walk the talk with integrity and intelligence, we have a winner.

Disclosure: Invested. This is not recommendation. A healthy discussion on fundamentals only

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VIP Industries : Luggage

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@bharat19 wrote:

VIP was incorporated as a wholly owned subsidiary of Blow Plast Ltd (BPL) in January 1968. In fiscal 2007, BPL was merged with VIP following restructuring in the group. The company manufactures hard luggage and markets soft luggage imported from China. VIP is the largest player in the luggage industry in India.
In fiscal 2018, profit after tax (PAT) was Rs 126 crore on net sales of Rs 1409 crore, against net profit of Rs 84 crore on net sales of Rs 1275 crore in fiscal 2017.

Strengths
Market leadership and strong brand in the domestic luggage industry. Popular Brands include VIP , Alfa , Skybag , Aristocrat etc . The company entered the ladies handbags segment and relaunched its Skybags brand, which has gained significant traction in the market.

Weakness:
High dependence of Soft Bags on Chinese Imports which accounts for a major part of VIP’s revenue, exposing the company to adverse forex movement

Positives:
Debt Free ,
ROE: 22.45 % ,
ROCE: 36.23 %
Sales Growth (3Yrs): 9.44 % , Profit growth 3Years: 21.85 %

Past Financials : (Image Credit : Moneyworks4me)

Promoters Remuneration well under ceiling , No equity dilution , Tax % are around 30%

Negatives:
Contingent Liabilities of around 106 Cr relating to some Sales Tax Issues(More than annual Profits)

Other listed Player: Safari ,

One Point i am unable to understand:
The Tangible assets of the company has reduced from 85 Cr in 2014 to 60 Cr in 2017. Do not know the exact reason. Depreciation % is in the range of 20% for every year and looks like company take Land , Spaces on Lease. No new assets are created which raises some doubts.

Disc: No investment

Any of you tracking it ?? @suru27 @vivek_mashrani @hitesh2710 @phreakv6 @ayushmit

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Pulp and Paper Industry - Not dead yet

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@pratikchandak wrote:

Demand growth in global paper industry is highly contributed by developing economies like India compare to western countries. Per capita consumption of paper in India is 13 Kg against global average of 57 Kg and significantly below 200 Kg in North America. Global paper and pulp mills industry has contracted slightly over the past 5 years (Due to shift in digital media and paperless communication across developed economies) but demand in emerging markets has seen increase in demand from packaging material.

Indian Paper Industry:
Paper Industry is highly fragmented segment in India. Indian Paper Industry is made of 750 mills out of which, 60% mills are small units with less than 50 thousand TPA capacity.

This Industry is broadly classified into 4 segments:
• Printing and writing
• Packaging paper and board
• Speciality papers & Others
• Newsprint

Raw material scenario:
• Pulp is primary raw material
Pulp costs over 40% of raw material cost obtained from
wood – 30-35% contribution,
wastepaper=45-50% contribution &
Agri-residues 20-22% contribution.
• India has a total land area of 3.3 million sq km with forests covering only 0.7 million sq km. About 78% of the total land area is non-forest area. That to diminishing. Hence, concept like agro forestry started and this has started yielding results.

Fuel
One of the important fuel for paper industry is coal. In last few quarters, there has been continuously shortage of coal in India. Hence, paper industries in India accesed international market for coal which resulted in to increased cost.

Opportunity
In age of digitization, a growth can be limited in writing and printing paper segment but this is being offset by the increase in demand growth for packaging board segment. Demand for better quality packaging of FMCG products marketed through organized retail, rising healthcare spends, over the counter medicines and increasing preference for ready-to-eat foods are the key demand drivers for paperboard.

Following is the growth forecast, forecasted by IPMA (Indian Paper Mills Association)
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Among this, Bllarpur and JKP are the top two companies in terms of market share. Find the highlights of both the companies below:

Ballarpur Industries Ltd
• Over the last 7/8 years, company has made significant debt-financed investments to modernise and scale up capacities across most of its Indian manufacturing units as well as in Sabah Forest Industries (SFI), the pulp and paper producing facility acquired in Malaysia.
• SFI has not been able to generate sufficient returns, largely on account of an unrealistically strong Malaysian Ringgit.
• Committee of Directors to consider and recommend a financial restructuring plan under the Strategic Debt Restructuring (SDR) scheme of the Reserve Bank of India.
• shares will be allotted to banks and financial institutions according to the proportion of their outstanding loan exposure to BILT. After the allotment, the Joint Lenders Forum will collectively own 51% of the fully paid up equity share capital of your Company.
• This will reduce the promotor stake in the company.
• They produce paper only on demand against advance payment.

JK Paper
• JKP able to maintain a leadership in copier segment with the 24% market share and amongst the top two positions in the coated paper and packaging board segment.
• JKP around 52000 KL per day water requirement .
• Managed to reduce cost well
• Landed cost of raw material reduced by 10-11% on account of agro forestry.
• they outsourced the paper and marketed that under the brand name of JK Paper. (Shift from manufacturing to distribution). And they will continue to do so in future (specially coated paper).
o Revenue from outsourced products increased from 3% tro 7% of sales.
o This will increase the ROE but will reduce the margins.
• Already running at more than 100% capacity from last 2 years.
• “We expect to increase the proportion of outsourced products withing our overall revenues, validating our growing brand strength, progressivelt liberating our sales from a complete dependence on captive manufacturing. “ Quotes from Annual report.
• In 2012-13, 23% of costs were from power and fuel. This declined to 7.68% in FY17.
• Packaging board business to 20% of revenues in FY17. Company emerged among the three largest virgin fibre packaging board players in India.
• Working capital has been reducing as they manage to keep the raw material inventory as low as possible as they source it from nearby area.
• There has been rating upgrade which is being resulted as reduction in interest rate.
• Shifted its focus from furnance oil to lime. Furnance oil is widely used in industry but it is costly.
• Will set up an additional capacity of 2,00,000 tonne in gujarat. It will be brownfield expansion.
o Debt to equity 1000:450 (total Rs. 1450 crore.)
o New plant will run at 80% capacity utilisation in first year.
o It will take 24 months to 30 months to commision after enviormental clearance.
• Sirpur acquisition cost is 150 crore and extra debt will be on the books of sirpur mill only and will be repayed from the EBIDTA of sirpur only.
• JKP already running at 110% capacity utilisation. Growth will come from outsourcing.
• There is scope for margin improvement of half % if they procure 80% wood requirement from 200 KM (Current 60%).
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Q4FY18 concall highlights:
• Total Vol: 131000
• Uncoated paper vol: 82000
• Coated paper vol: 23000
• Packaging paper/board vol: 25000.
• NSR 56
• Will set up an additional capacity of 2,00,000 tonne in gujarat. It will be brownfield expansion.
• Debt will increase by 1000 crores. 450 will be funded by internal accruals. Total expenditure is around 1450 crores.
• new plant will commence its production in 24 months to 20 months after the environmental clearance.
• Sirpur acquisition cost is 150 crore and extra debt will be on the books of sirpur mill only and will be repayed from the EBIDTA of sirpur only.
• Packaging industry growing at 12 to 14%. There will be more demand than supply in 2020.
• “I do not think any major announcement from the A grade players barring the Emami packaging board has come in. TNPL setup their packing board machine last year and they are not fully stabilized, so I do not think they may announce any major investment at this stage, may be in the writing and printing paper they can think of in the next two years. Ballarpur I do not think that they can put any major investment at this stage because they are not yet out of the wood and West Coast I do not know whether they will invest. It is very difficult to say, yes all the players may further augment their capacities in times to come when there is a good demand.” -Transcript Q4FY18
• Other markets are more intersting for foreign players. So they are not very much active in India.
• In odisha – Produces 100% in first year only.
• In new plant, it will be 80%+ in first year after commisioning.
• Foreign integrated packaging player has margin ratio of 18% to 20%.
• Expecting 2 to 3% increase in NSR per KG for FY19.
• Sirpur plant was shut for 4 years. It may take more six months to start the mill.
• Sirpur plant has closer proximity to coal and pulp.
• Total vol for an year is at 501000 tonne.
• For acquisition of sirpur plant, they have been rewarded in terms of electricity, GST, wood and coal.
• There can be antidumping duty on Paper.
• JKP already running at 110% capacity utilisation. Growth will come from outsourcing.

Challenges/Threats :
• Access to quality and cost competitive raw material
o India is wood fibre deficient country as government of India doesnot permit industrial plantations in the country
o recovery rate of wastepaper in India is quite low (~30%) due to lack of an effective collection mechanism.
o So the players depend on the imports of pulp, wastepaper and even pulpwood to meet their raw material needs and often have to pay premium for availing them thereby impacting profitability and capacity addition
• Competition from imports
o Imports are 20% of the paper consumtion in India
o No anti-dumping duti on Paper imports in India
o Imports from ASEAN countries surge 67% in FY17, china imports increase by 44%
• Technology
o raw material as well as the power consumption is higher as compared to a modern paper mill in India
• Issue with Industrial plantation policies
• Also, India does not have robust system of waste paper collection, sorting, grading.

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Transcorp International - Forex Money Transfer

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@magicharshit wrote:

Features:

  • Company is into Currency exchange, competitor of Weizmann.
  • Too much undervalued, when compared to peers.
  • Ritco, a wholly owned subsidiary, a business into Tours and Travels.
  • Received RBIs approval to run PPI services and geared up to launch a new portal, transcash.money.
  • Consistent Dividend paying company.
  • Market share has shown great jump.
  • Good Corporate Governance. Share history has seen many bonuses and splits, creating great value for investors.

According to AR of transcorp, Ashish Chug has also taken the position in Transcorp International.
Source: http://transcorpint.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Annual_Report_2017-2018.pdf
Page No: 40

Disc: Holding from September, 2017.

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KEI Industries - Jode dilo ki taar

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@varunjindal1989 wrote:

Source: Edelweiss

Company Description
KEI was established in 1968 as a partnership firm Krishna Electrical Industries with prime
business of manufacturing house wiring rubber cables. It was converted into a public limited
company with the corporate name KEI Industries in December 1992. In 1996, KEI acquired
Matchless, a company under same management, which manufactured stainless steel wires.
KEI has, over the years, invested in building flexible manufacturing facilities and expanded
capacities. The company manufactures and supplies power and other industrial cables.The
company operates through 3 segments—cables, stainless steel wires and turnkey projects. It
also focuses on EPC business.

Investment Theme

  1. Government’s infra push: Potent demand catalyst - Housing For All & improving power
    availability, in our view, will be key drivers of the domestic cables & wires industry. With the
    government sharpening focus on power generation, transmission and distribution, demand
    for cables as part of T&D equipment is expected to expand significantly. KEI’s expertise in
    EPC projects and excellent track record has rendered it the preferred candidate for such
    projects.
  2. Huge scope to leverage cables business with forward integration in EPC - In EPC, KEI has
    the advantage of manufacturing (in house) EHV, HV and LT cables, which account for
    product pull through of 30%, leading to superior margin. Also, technological collaboration
    with Switzerland-based Brugg Kabel AG has helped the company gain faster entry in the EHV
    cable market with designs and process back up—services sought by end users.

Key Risks

  1. Cyclical nature of business - KEI’s products are used primarily by power utilities,
    infrastructure, real estate and industrial segments. Any slowdown in these sectors can
    significantly impact demand for KEI’s products.
  2. High competition - A majority of KEI’s products are highly competitive in nature and face
    strong threat from other players.
  3. Raw material price fluctuation - Excessive volatility in prices of key raw materials—copper
    and aluminium—can severely impact profitability. Although KEI tries to recover rise in raw
    material prices either through hike in selling price of products or via hedging, there is no
    assurance that it can do so successfully or at all in the future.
  4. Currency fluctuation - With exports being a key contributor to the company’s revenue,
    excessive volatility in currency rates can significantly impact profitability. KEI also imports
    raw material and extreme currency fluctuations can adversely affect costs of the same, in
    turn denting profitability.

FY19 Guidance:
• 18-20% volume growth in FY19 given the improving outlook for the cables industry.
• Retail business growth: Besides growing the dealer network, KEI is also focusing on
strengthening existing dealers.
• The EHV cables segment is expected to double its revenue (INR3.6bn in FY19 versus
INR1.68bn in FY18) in FY19 with INR3bn of order book where margins are also high.
EHV segment’s peak revenue stands at INR4.0-4.5bn.
• Exports are expected to grow 12-15%.
• Revenue from dealers is expected to grow 30%.

Volumes outpace peers; dip in term debt boosts PAT
KEI’s robust 17% revenue beat was driven by turnkey segment’s 42% growth in Q4FY18
driven by higher execution. The cables segment’s 19% growth was led by 17% volume spurt
(peers’ 6-7%) coupled with pass through of higher input prices. Retail cables’ 42% sales
growth was driven by higher ad spends (~1.75x versus FY17) to improve brand image.
Management’s focus on term debt reduction helped prune interest cost (down 4% in
Q4FY18) and post 40% PAT growth.

Read-across for the industry
With KEI’s cables segment posting strong volume growth, we anticipate Finolex and VGuard
to post healthy volume growth as well. However, they are unlikely to surpass KEI, as
the latter has additional levers of EHV and exports (up 65% / 21%, respectively).
Capacity expansion and improved brand image to propel revenue
While it is heartening to see strong B2B growth (turnkey/EHV growth at 42/65% in
FY18), we expect B2C expansion to drive incremental growth for KEI with cash
generation. This, we believe, is achievable given capacity expansion (by 17%) of LT
cables facility, focus on improving brand perception and distribution expansion.
Outlook and valuations: Robust visibility; maintain ‘BUY’

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IZMO- bet on new technologies in Auto retail & defence

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@harry4u9 wrote:

Company Profile:

According to Bloomberg : Izmo Limited provides automotive e-retailing solutions. The Company offers interactive online stores, car animation and graphics, online marketing programs, sales performance coaching, customer relationship management solutions, and online service management solutions. Izmo serves customers worldwide.

According to Company : izmo ltd. is the world leader in interactive marketing solutions. The company offers hi-tech automotive e-retailing solutions in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Why the buzz?

  1. Featured in Financial times- Statista 1000 high growth companies in 2018 link
  2. New order from a Mexican OEM link
  3. Tata motors is already moving in the direction of letting users configure their cars. link

Who’s behind the company?

Sanjay Soni is the real brains in the company

What do they do exactly?

Keeping aside the Corporate exaggeration what they do is:

  1. They have the world’s largest library of car images, animation and video.
  2. Solution to Automobile retailers (Websites with HQ animation, Automotive retail intelligence using data analytics, Virtual reality based)
  3. Defense manufacturing division focused on India, UAE & Saudi Arabia which are large buyers (25% of total imports globally)

What do the numbers look like?



Pros:

  1. Consumer demographics of auto buyers is changing and thus the buying behaviour is also changing (Global research & AC Nielson Research for India) so online will continue to dominate and here the imagery section of the company will benefit
  2. The dealership experience influences the buying decision a lot and this point of sale is where the company’s VR product can be a gamechanger (Read Human experience section on this article published by PwC under the 5 trends transforming the automotive industry.
  3. IZMOstudio is the digital interface that the company intends to sell to dealers which is like a cardekho.com but at a dealer level so if someone visits the dealer website they will be able to provide Big data to the dealer about the consumer trends
  4. Caters largely to developed markets where these concepts are more likely to be accepted and are marketable.
  5. Tie ups with Global car makers and a company claimed market share of 25% in Mexico and 12% in France with rapid expansion plans across Europe

Cons:

  1. The threat of shared mobility (ride sharing, bike sharing etc)
  2. Adoption of technology by Indian dealerships
  3. Many digital channels competing for consumer attention with requisite information about products
  4. Capex plans for Defence sector may be a drag on financials

Company website : https://www.izmoltd.com/ & Investor presentation

Disclosure: Not Invested yet studying more

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Ice make Refrigeration - Picks & shovels for cold storage infrastructure

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@lastgenesis wrote:

Ice Make Refrigeration is an micro cap stock listed on the NSE SME exchange, it entered the market earlier this year with an IPO priced @ Rs. 57 and is currently trading around Rs. 80. It is a manufacturer of refrigeration systems, the kind used for cold storage. There are 4 product categories

  1. Cold rooms – 65% of turnover
  2. Commercial refrigeration – 15% of turnover
  3. Industrial refrigeration – 10% of turnover
  4. Transport refrigeration – 11% of turnover

The company has 2 plants one near Ahmedabad & 1 in Chennai. The purpose of issue was to backward integrate into manufacturing of coils for captive use as well as upgradation of manufacturing facilities. Current capacity utilization is only around 50% or so (varies as per vertical) and so there is not likely to be much capex in near future.

Most attractive thing about the company is the macro picture for its industry. India is desperately short of storage facility for food, around 18% of food & vegetables go waste every year and the number is substantial for other food categories also.

Most parts of India are under penetrated (see attached report for details) and even in states like UP which have adequate storage facilities they are largely used for a single product only (potatoes). There is a desperate need for more cold storage and this is a critical component of the framework required to ensure that farmers get better price for their products and do not get squeezed on account of perishability of their produce. While we have been talking of a need for more cold storage for a few years now, the improved rural road networks, better power connectivity and greater visibility of farmer distress (both from an economic and political standpoint), are enabling factors that may speed up the creation of more warehouses. Essentially we are looking at an industry that may have 15-20% growth visibility for the next decade.

Company has shown good growth over the last 4 years with improving margins, debt has historically been comfortable and post IPO there is zero net debt.

In attached concall the company has guided for 30-35% topline growth next 2-3 years, they seem confident of maintaining or increasing margins at current levels by focusing on the businesses other than cold rooms which have higher margins. Also they indicate lack of capital was holding back business expansion which is now not the case post IPO funds.

On flip side the business is quite competitive and there are numerous local as well as imported players, entry barriers are not very high though like everywhere else GST should help organized players.

In summary cold storage per se may not be a high margin or attractive business with long gestation periods et al but this company going by the apocryphal story is the guy who supplied picks and shovels during the gold rush and made more money than the actual miners. At 16 trailing PE given scale of operations it may look fairly priced but it is a business that has lot of near and medium term growth potential and no listed peers. Worth a dekko…

Disc - not holding

fy2018-conference-call-transcript.pdf (132.8 KB)
investor-presentation-may-2018.pdf (2.1 MB)
Annual results FY18Food wastage & cold storage industry.pdf (2.3 MB)

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Seshasayee papers ltd

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@jvpatel87 wrote:

Seshasayee Papers ltd

The Industry:

4 Categories of Paper :

  1. Newsprint
  2. Writing and print papers(32% market)
    Poor growth can be expected in future with increase in digitalization and online activities
  3. Paper boards for packing(55%)
    Increase in growth can be expected in future
  4. Tissue papers(8-10%) and other speciality papers(3%)

Present per capita consumption :
India = 13 kg (Expected to increase to 17kg by 2025)
World = 67 kg

The business:

Main Product in seshasayee : 100% revenue is from business of writing and printing paper

Units :

  1. Erode unit : (2018 data)
    • Produced 121594 tonnes in 2018 as compared to 125662 tonnes in 2017
    • Export = 11.88%
    • Produced 23.9 Cr worth petroleum products
    • Produced 510 tonnes notebooks
    • Left over 16 tonnes
  2. Tirunelveli unit :
    • Produced 66609 tonnes in 2018 as compared to 69751 tonnes in 2017
    • Export = 21.7%
    • Zero stock left over

SUBSIDIARIES:

Esvi International Ltd :
• 100% holding
• Deals in properties
• Net profit in 2018 : 0.07 Cr

ASSOCIATES:

Ponni Sugars ltd :
• Invested 19.6 Cr
• Net profit in 2018 : 3.34 Cr

Equity shares:

Authorised shares = 4 Crores
Cumulative redeemable preference shares = 3 Crores
Issued shares = 12613628.There is high probability of issuing bonus shares.However,bonus shares have there own pros and cons.

Financial analysis

Sales:

Sales is very irregular.increased from 437Cr(2008) to 1105Cr(2018).Since 3 yrs there is poor growth in sales(1%-8%-0%).

OPM:

Opm has been 19% and is improving.

Tax rate:

The tax rate at around the 28-30%.

Other income:

Company has about 7% of its revenue as other income.Its primarily from interest and dividends.
It has term deposit of 118.8 Cr.It has equity investment of108.37 Cr

Cash flow from operations:

CFO is 848 Cr.Capex is 984 Cr.Free cash flow is about -136 Cr.

Some ratio analysis

Asset turnover:

has decreased to 1.65,which means company is making poor use of its fixed assets.

Receivable days:

is around 35 recently,gradually reduced over years.

Inventory turnover ratio:

is 7.71(reduced).

ROE and ROCE:

is average around 19% and 16% respectively.It has reduced in 2018 to minor extent.

Cumulative Net profit/CFO:

= 473.93/847.91, which means company is able to nicely convert its profit into cash.

SSGR:

is 14% which says company can continue its operations without and external capital.

Networth:

Companies net worth has improved from 12.43 Cr to 725.47 Cr in 10 years.

Trade Receivables(106.86 Cr) is lesser than trade payables(236.46 Cr)

Cash :

24.63 Cr

Dividends :

15 Rs in 2018.Gradually increasing.

D/E : 0.2

Risks :

• Change in RM prices(wood/coal/oil/chemicals)-They have tried pulp farming by providing seeds to farmers at subsidy.Thus,they can get wood pulp at efficient cost and manner.
• Monsoon-Water is required largely in paper industry.Rivers near units are usually dry in summer and off rain.
• Competition
• Capital intensive business

At current price of 900Rs per share,you get per share following -
• eps=100Rs
• Dividend=15Rs
• Equity inv=100Rs
• Term Deposit-100Rs
• Cash and equivalent=25Rs

Management analysis

Salary :

1% of net profit

Shareholders:

Couldn’t find any controversy and frauds.

Expansion plan :
2 projects :

  1. Mill development plan 2 @ Erode unit :
    • Completed at 75Cr cost
    • Produce pulp
    • 1.45L tonne capacity
    • 50Cr cost work is under progress
  2. Mill development plan @ Tirunelveli unit :
    • Completed @ 75 Cr cost

Conclusion:

Overall company is good till there is good rain,less and easily available RM.Since last year’s Q3 paper industry in India has got favourable inputs n outputs and thus profits n growth can be seen ahead.Its 18q1 result is good and expected to see growth in further quarters.Big asset companies like LIC has invested in seshasayee papers.However,paper industry has lot of competition.

(Note:final conclusion of this being good or bad investment should be based on your own analysis.
Disclosure:8% of my PF)

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Excel Crop Care - Turn Around - Sumitomo Acquisition

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@ashishverma wrote:

Excel Crop Care

From Rs 150 in 2011 to 4200 in 2018

Hidden Gem !

12 reasons you should think about it

2800% growth in 7 years !

Why it is a hidden gem :

  1. Agrochemicals market in India is growing at > 10% annum and * it would gain speed* due to following reasons :

a) Manual labor shift to other high paying attractive sectors ( mfrg, construction etc ). Less availability of manual labor means more dependence on chemicals

b ) Farmers kids getting educated. Farming won’t be core business for next generation kids , it would be a side business. They would like to outsource farm management to consultants, technologies. Hence higher chances of chemical usage as manual involvement would go down.

c) Farmers are aging very fast in the world , India has a higher younger population . In next 10 years , there would be less farmers in the world , so chances of higher exports from India . Higher export means higher margins so high chances of spending on high value chemicals .

  1. Excel is involved in generics and speciality chemicals .
    After acquisition by Sumitomo, Excel Crop has now access to speciality chemicals . Generics help to grow it business in existing markets whereas speciality chemicals would make it capable of competing in emerging opportunities.

  2. Sumitomo Chemicals track record in India
    the company’s agrochemical business grew from 30 crores to 900 crore in 7 years .It is the fastest growing company in India in agrochemical sector. If it transfers its marketing know-how to Excel Crop Care , the growth of this company can be much higher .

  3. Distribution channel of Sumitomo Chemicals

Check last year results of Excel Crop Care .

Sumitomo chemicals in India has a bigger and dynamic distribution channel than Excel Crop . If Excel Crop Products can be sold by Sumitomo in India , the growth for Excel Crop Care would be much higher . In last year , Excel Crop sold 114 crores material to Sumitomo in India . That is 10% biz and 10% growth for Excel Crop . And that was the first year . If this continues , Excel Crop would keep getting growth from Sumitomo Chemical .

  1. Old to new management

Excel Crop was managed by local Indian promoter who were not keen on too fast growth . UPL and other companies took advantage of a growing market whereas promoters at Excel Crop were happy with the status quo .
Sumitomo Chemical might change that management style and may bring fresh blood and fresh thinking in the organisation.

  1. Chances of de-listing or demerger

That would give other opportunity of value re-creation .

  1. Export opportunities

Bharat Rasayan, UPL all have grown many fold in last 10 years by becoming a global exporter whereas Excel was sleeping . Now after acquisition by Sumitomo Chemicals , chances of it becoming a global supplier as very visible as Sumitomo has footholds in every country .

8.Supplier to Sumitomo Chemicals

Most of the Japanese companies are changing their production base from Japan to China or India . There are high chances that Sumitomo may shift their production to India .Excel Crop Care would benefit from that .

  1. Less Cap-ex requirement

Excel Crop spends huge money on r & d . That may not be required as new molecules would come from parent company . Growth with reduced cap-ex would help it to realise better margins

  1. Good corporate governance

Being a MNC , we can expect a good corporate governance from new management.

  1. Focused Approach

Whereas other MNCs are focusing on too many parts of the agriculture market , Excel Crop is focused on chemicals . As many MNCs are shifting their r & d money towards seed research , this leaves a big vacant space for Sumitomo & Excel to be a strong , solo player for innovating future
molecules.

  1. Herbicide resistant crops

In near future, India may give permission to herbicide resistant crops . Monsanto could not get permission due to certain image issues but now it has been merged with Bayer . Chances of Bayer getting permission are higher. Excel Crop is 2nd largest player in producing that specific herbicide. If herbicide resistant crops in India come , it would be big lottery for Excel Crop investors.
Check the last quarter results

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